Thursday, June 15
The Ukrainian counteroffensive makes ground despite challenges and obstacles
ℹ️ Counter offensive, central focus
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian counter-offensive began, and has been on-going. I think the world was expecting a Saturday, Sept 10-style counter offensive, which saw widespread Russian line collapses. Instead, this has been a systematic and unannounced push in focus areas.
🇺🇦 The counteroffensive has advanced between 4-5 miles and liberated more than half a dozen settlements in the western part of the Donbas and in Zaporizhzhia.
🇺🇦 There have yet to be decisive victories
🇺🇦 The pace has been slow because Russia was very well prepared for the counteroffensive. Russia has been falling back between tactical lines, making it costly for Ukrainian advances
🇺🇦 During this counter offensive, so far, Russian forces have lost 7,000-8,0000 soldiers and hundreds of heavy weapon systems. (Overall, 218,000 Russian troops)
🇺🇦 Russian troops have increased their attacks and densely mined the fields to stop Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive, but Ukrainian forces are "advancing confidently," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian TV on June 14.
🇺🇦 Western officials are ‘holding their breath’ to see if billions in supplied weapons will cut through Russia’s entrenched lines.
ℹ️ General updates:
🇺🇦 Russia has lost another general. Major-general Sergey Goryachev, 52, died during fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region.
🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia has recently seen major action in Ukraine’s counter-offensive
🇺🇦 20 Ukrainian soldiers from the Azov Regiment who were taken as POWs are going on trial in Russia.
🇺🇦 Over 1 million Ukrainians will face water shortages after Kakhovka dam destruction.
🇺🇦 The silver lining of the Kakhovka dam destruction is that it offers a sustainability reset. Basically, Ukraine doesn’t have the mountains needed for hydroelectric power so dams were built in slow-moving areas like Kakhovka. The dam was built in 1956 and is not a good solution to power. The destruction of the dam allows for water supply and hydroelectric improvements.
🇺🇦 An explosion has blocked a key Russian logistics railway route near occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces have lost five freight wagons and 50 meters of railway track as a result.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to steal grain and private property from the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russia is shelling the flooded areas in Kherson as rescue workers tries to save civilians trapped in the flood
🇺🇦 Adam Delimkhanov, a State Duma member and a close associate of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov, has been wounded. In response, Kadyrov asked Ukrainian Intelligence to provide details on what positions they hit so he can find his friend. “I ask Ukrainian Intelligence to provide information on exactly what place and what positions were hit”
🇺🇦 Ukraine successfully intercepted six Kh-47 hypersonic missiles using the Patriot missile system
🇺🇦 U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin revealed on June 15 that a number of countries have pledged new military aid packages to Ukraine at the 13th Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels.
🇺🇦 There is talk of Western partners donating F-16s to Ukraine in the coming months. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced on June 15 that Ukrainian pilots are already training on F-16 aircraft, allowing Western states to provide F-16s to Ukraine on an unspecified timeline. However, I’ve been hearing this for 470+ days so I’ll believe it when I see it.
🇺🇦 Russia is ‘furious’ after a HIMARS killed 100 Russian troops waiting for a commander’s speech, near the Luhansk Oblast. This prompted Russian milbloggers to complain that ‘Russia is at war with its own stupidity’. This division was reportedly preparing to go on the offensive
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers didn't prepare for Kakhovka dam destruction, suffered losses on Dnipro River's east bank
🇺🇦 Russian air force activity is increasing in southern Ukraine
🥴 Total side note, but I’ve gone back and found a bunch of autocorrects in my text tonight. “Air Force” turned into “airfare” and “Azov” turned into “Above.” I’m embarrassed to think of how many crazy things were communicated to you because I typed one thing and autocorrect changed it to something completely different. Wood the duck!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news
"I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news."
We forgive you!
Don't waste a second of time worrying about your blog not being perfect. I'd say such worry is the 4th point of Russian propaganda. We'd rather have a post that's 95% correct than nothing.