Thursday, June 23
HIMARS is the name of the game. Also, Ukraine gets EU candidate status. Also drone update
🇺🇦 US-made HIMARS have arrived in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Pictured: Map of the occupied Ukrainian territories that are in the HIMARS kill zone
🇺🇦 Yesterday it was pretty big news that a Ukrainian UAV suicide drone blew up an Oil refinery in Rostov, Russia
🇺🇦 It launched from the Donetsk Oblast
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces have not targeted Russian infrastructure for several weeks
🇺🇦 This strike was an attempt to disrupt Russian logistics and fuel supply to Russian operations in eastern Ukraine.
🇺🇦 The drone is a generic 200cc gas-powered air frame designed for agriculture use, but is gaining popularity as a small-army drone. That said…
🇺🇦 Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones
🇺🇦 Ukraine has scaled back air operations to 20 to 30 sorties per day and are facing a deficit of available aircraft for active pilots.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials are concerned that US-provided Gray Eagle strike drones will also be shot down by reinforced Russian air defense over the Donbas
🇺🇦 Russian forces are prioritizing deploying air defenses to eastern Ukraine to nullify Ukrainian operations and to protect the artillery systems. That said…
🇺🇦 UA Air Force and armed drones are still active elsewhere, such as the Kherson Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, where they likely launched the drone strike into RU territory
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War reports that members of the Russian military community and milbloggers (e.g, people like me on the Russian side) continue to comment on the shortcomings of Russian force generation capabilities, which are having tangible impacts on the morale and discipline of Russians fighting in Ukraine.
🇪🇺European Parliament overwhelmingly approves EU candidacy status for Ukraine and Moldova
🇪🇺Ukraine had some really corrupt politics prior to the invasion, but it has all gone silent since the invasion began. This behavior will likely reemerge after (if?) the war ends, and this is the type of thing EU wants to curb before UA ascends.
🇺🇸 New intelligence says that Russia will support isolationist candidates in 2024 in an effort to stop US support for Ukraine (and other territories of interest to Russian expansion). They will target elements in both parties towards this effort
🇺🇸In addition to intelligence, Russian leaders, figureheads, state propagandists, are very publicly discussing their intention to do this
🇺🇸 US congressmen introduced a bill to train UA pilots on NATO jets so they can transition to the F16
🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 I just noticed that none of my Substack flag emojis carry over to Substack. So all the Substack readers see is this weird “ua” symbol! Substack readers, is that your experience?
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
On the email and walterhimself web page I get us, eu and ua. No flags.
About corruption: After the war a lot of money will be flowing into Ukraine during the rebuilding. This will be the time for massive corruption to show up. I have thought that anyone demanding a bribe to do/not do their job OR anyone offering a bribe should be treated as someone who wants to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO. Charge them with treason and ..... ?