🇺🇦 Pictured: It appears that Russia abandoned Snake Island after an overnight Ukrainian attack. Edit: by the time of this posting, this has been confirmed
🇺🇦 The Russian military and its much-touted Black Sea Fleet couldn't secure an island 170 miles from its homeport, from a war-torn adversary with no navy. This is an absolute stunning failure of massive proportions.
🇺🇦 Russia’s car manufacturing collapse 97% in just one month.
🇺🇦 Russia's former President Medvedev says sanctions could be justification for war. But nobody really cares because nobody is afraid of Russia anymore
🇺🇦 The US will announce another $800+ million tranche of weapons to Ukraine "in the next few days," including air defense systems, artillery, radars, and HIMARS ammunition.
🇺🇦 Russian state TV claims Russia shot down 1,000 Bayraktars (only 400 have ever been made)
🇺🇦 It appears that the Kremlin is setting conditions to annex Kherson and Zaporizhia into the Russian Federation, similar to Crimea
🇺🇦 The Russians are also requiring Ukrainian citizens in southern Ukraine to open bank accounts with Russian state-owned bank, Promsvyazbank
🇺🇦 Ukrainian sources warned on June 29 that Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) to accuse Ukrainian authorities of mishandling nuclear facilities. Specifically…
🇺🇦 Ukrainian nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom stated that Russian occupation authorities are planning to throw unsafe objects into the cooling system in order to compromise the plant’s cooling mechanisms.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Lysychansk and seem to be having success
🇺🇦 Russian forces are advancing within Lysychansk itself and are reportedly fighting in southwestern and southeastern suburbs of the city
🇺🇦 Russian forces are continuing to engage in offensive operations north of Kharkiv City, indicating that the Kremlin has territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas that will continue to attrit manpower and equipment, potentially at the cost of offensive power on more critical axes of advance.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to reinforce their defensive presence along the Southern Axis.
🇺🇦 The days of updates once every 48 hours is coming, so just be prepared!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!