Thursday, May 12

All about the infamous failed river crossing which destroyed two battalions in 24 hours.

🇺🇦 Two days ago (May 10), Russia attempted to cross the Seversky Donets River in order to occupy Bilohorivka. This is part of the “encirclement” campaign in eastern Ukraine to take the entire eastern territory. Russia built a pontoon bridge, which is fairly standard practice. A battalion group started crossing the river. Ukraine was watching this. Russia mounted 7 out of 8 parts of the bridge. Ukraine was ready with artillery. 20 minutes after recon confirmed the bridge being built, the UA artillery started hitting hard.

🇺🇦 At this point, Russia had lost 30-50 vehicles. This is where most reporting ends, and all the articles were published. All the articles you read yesterday stopped reporting here.

🇺🇦 However, EXTREMELY heavy fighting kept going…ground/tank/artillery/air. They tried to escape with the broke bridge. When that didn’t work, they tried to build a second bridge. That’s when the UA air support came in and destroyed everything, including the second bridge.

🇺🇦 RU lost an estimated 70 vehicles, and 1,000-1,500 troops.

🇺🇦 This means they’ve lost up to 95% of TWO battalion tactical groups.

🇺🇦 Note: America considers 50% loss a total loss (citation needed on the correct wording). Russia lost up to 95% of two BTGs

🇺🇦 The above was reported by multiple news sources (Forbes, Malcontent News) then details were provided by by a UA EOD officer

🇺🇦 Pictured: The remnants of the bridge crossing

🇺🇦 The above contributed to 2,800 RU casualties in just two days.

🇺🇦 (Pictured) At this point, armored vehicles and tanks committed to the special operations are almost 100% losses. Source:

https://minusrus.com/

🇺🇦 Today Finland will officially announce its intention to join NATO “as quickly as possible.” Sweden will make a similar statement in the coming days—they were waiting on Finland to see what Finland did. Finland was a neutral country for almost 80 years, and Sweden for two centuries.

🇺🇦 NATO said they would welcome Finland with open arms.

🇺🇦 Kremlin warned Finland and Sweden not to do this.

🇺🇦 American A-10 anti-tank airplanes (of brrrrrrt fame) are landing in Europe. Their destination is Poland and the Baltic states. This is done presumably to support Finland and Sweden in part of defense cooperation agreements as they join various alliances. (Imagine An A-10 against Russia’s 40-mile convoy)

🇺🇦 Fighting continues at Azovstal. They’ve been trying to block tunnel access but keep losing troops, so they’re resorting to siege tactics.

🇺🇦 Nearly 1,000 companies have curtailed operations in Russia, with the biggest being Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google.

🇺🇦 Kosovo believes it now has the support to apply to the EU. I won’t dive into this, but because of RU has exited the council of Europe

🇺🇦 Serbia has vowed to respond harshly to Kosovo’s moves, aaaaaand some fighting might break out as a result.

🇺🇦 Yesterday I reported that the grain Russia stole is on the Mediterranean being shipped to Russian allies on a Russian-flagged ships. Ports are not allowing the ship(s?) to dock.

🇺🇦 Yesterday Biden touted American farmers as the answer to the global food shortage as a result of the invasion. The admin unveiled several policies to boost domestic agriculture output. Note: these sales, not donations. Admin messaging was something like: Famers, you’re the backbone of America, you supply America, and now you’ll supply the world. You are the backbone of freedom.

🇺🇦 China made some harsh statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They are clearly embarrassed by Russia, and are clearly scared of western sanctions (again, their economy is thiiiiiiiiiis close to being pushed off the edge)

🇺🇦 It will take a decade to complete de-mine Ukraine after the war

🇺🇦 Russia reported its first civilian death in the war, after a missile strike in Belgorod killed one civilian and injured seven more. Kyiv has not yet claimed responsibility for the strike. I’d say UA def did this, but Russia is big on their false flag attacks, so who knows

🇺🇦 No real operations updates from me today

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.

⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…

⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!