Thursday, May 25
Russia’s pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut, cross-border raids into Russia, and 200,000+ Russian casualties
ℹ️ Russia has taken Bakhmut, main story line
🇺🇦 Russia has taken Bakhmut. Russia declared victory in the battle for Bakhmut on May 21, after fighting for a year.
🇺🇦 This was a pyrrhic victory. This was a largely symbolic win that doesn’t have much strategic value, but at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian casualties.
🇺🇦 Bakhmut wasn’t even a primary Russian objective during the early phases of the war. Russia wanted to take it to support encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbas, and facilitate offensives against Slovyansk.
🇺🇦 Russia has culminated and has no ability to defend Bakhmut. Russia has no ability to reinforce Wagner
🇺🇦 This area has some tactical significance because it was a Russian bridgehead on the western side of the Donets-Donbas Canal, which marks the front line through parts of the sector.
🇺🇦 The Russian pro-war information space has been saturated with discussions about reported Russian losses in Bakhmut, overshadowing any positive impact from the city's capture.
🇺🇦 The Russian response to the capture of Bakhmut has focused on assigning blame and speculating about the operation's costs, preventing the Russian Ministry of Defense from presenting a positive narrative about the city's capture.
🇺🇦 Prigozhin is leveraging his increased prominence after the capture of Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites. He is also exploiting the perception that Wagner is responsible for the capture to advocate for an exaggerated level of influence over the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
ℹ️ Russia is leaving Bakhmut main story line
🇺🇦 Last minute update: Wagner says it is pulling out of Bakhmut. This is a developing story at the time of this writing
ℹ️ Invasion subplot
🇺🇦 An anti-Putin Russian militia made an incursion into Belogrod
🇺🇦 The incursion was reportedly the work of two Ukraine-based Russian opposition militias, the Free Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, who claimed the attack marked the start of a campaign to “liberate Russia.”
🇺🇦 The Ukraine military was officially not involved, however, it appears Ukrainians (militia or citizens) supported from the Ukrainian border.
🇺🇦 UA politician, Mykhailo Podolyak, declared that Ukraine “has nothing to do with it,” he could not resist mocking the Kremlin. “As you know, tanks are sold at any Russian military store, and underground guerrilla groups are composed of Russian citizens,” he tweeted, in an obvious reference to the transparent lies employed by Vladimir Putin during the 2014 Russian military seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, where Putin said army uniforms could be purchased at any store.
🇺🇦 These tongue-in-cheek comments were widely interpreted--right or wrong--as confirmation that Ukraine was now using Russia’s own hybrid war playbook against the Putin regime.
🇺🇦 Russia responded with harsh threats. But the fact is that there are no troops to defend Russia from incursions. Well-known Russian pundits are questioning why Russian borders are so pourus (answer: there’s no one left to defend them)
🇺🇦 Russian sources continue to address the limited incursion into Belgorod Oblast by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR).
🇺🇦 Russia says they’ve destroyed the incursion. Other officials say the factions are still there. The factions are giving pressers.
ℹ️ General updates
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is persistently working to depict Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships.
🇺🇦 The Russian Federation Council has passed a law approving elections in territories under martial law.
🇺🇦 Russia had their Victory Day parade. It had 1 tank
🇺🇦 Ukraine responded by showing a video of all of the burnt out tanks that tractors had dragged back to Kyiv and was like, ‘if you’re looking for your tanks, we have them right here’
🇺🇦 Zelensky said Ukraine needs more time to prepare a counteroffensive/
🇺🇦 On May 12, Russia tried to destroy a Patriot missile defense system with a hypersonic missile. The hypersonic missile was destroyed by the Patriot missile defense system
🇺🇦 Germany is preparing to send Ukraine a record breaking military aid package worth 2.7 billion euros ($2.9 billion)
🇺🇦 Ukraine still has a shortage of air defense missiles
🇺🇦 Zelensky visited the Vatican and spoke with Pope Francis for 40 minutes. Pope Francis gifted him a small olive branch sculpture. Zelensky gifted the Pope an icon of the Virgin Mary painted onto a piece of body armor.
🇺🇦 Zelensky then traveled to Berlin to shore up support ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
🇺🇦 Zelensky then traveled to Paris to meet with Macron.
🇺🇦 Three Russian aircraft, three of which were helicopters, were allegedly shot down in Moscow….by Russia's own air defense. May 13.
🇺🇦 Four Russian aircraft were allegedly shot down near the Ukrainian border by Russian forces
🇺🇦 May 14: Russia lost 48 artillery systems in the past two days
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces have retaken more than 10 Russian-held positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on May 14.
🇺🇦 Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to give Ukraine the location of Russian troops in exchange for Ukraine pulling out of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses. This is according to the Discord leaks.
🇺🇦 2,000 defenders of Mariupol remain in Russian captivity.
🇺🇦 Putin’s approval ratings have collapsed in all former USSR states
ℹ️ Russia has lost more than 200,000 troops subplot
🇺🇦 See section header for more information
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news