Thursday, May 26
Battle of Severodonetsk, Russia's attempt to blame the west for grain shortages, and the heroics that resupplied Azovstal
🇺🇦 Pictured: During the siege of Mariupol, there were seven resupply missions flown by Ukrainian helicopter crews into the heart of the fighting at Azovstal. Flying two at a time, Ukrainian Mi-8 Hip helicopter crews braved dense Russian air defense and enemy aircraft to deliver desperately needed supplies and fresh troops to the defenders of the besieged Azovstal steel plant. Of the 16 total helicopters involved, two were destroyed. The Mi-8s provided troops at Avostal with arms, ammunition, medicine, food, and 72 additional fighters from the Azov Regiment.
🇺🇦 All deliveries mentioned above were successful. But on the 5th and 7th missions, two helicopters were shot down. A third helicopter coming to the rescue on one of those was also destroyed
🇺🇦 On the battlefield, Russia’s shelling of the industrial city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk is increasing “exponentially”.
🇺🇦 Russia seems to be trying to soften up the city to take it. (Recall the MO: Russia destroys a city then moves on the rubble)
🇺🇦 Russia is trying to link Lyman to Papasna in a pincer move to surround Severodonetsk.
🇺🇦 Russia is trying to get the world to believe that western sanctions are what is preventing grain from getting through. To this end, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov Peskov said the west “must cancel the [sanctions] that prevent the charter of ships and export of grain.” This, of course, is not true, as Russian ships are the ones blockading Ukrainian ports.
🇺🇦 UK swiftly rejected Russia’s blackmail of lifting sanctions to allow UA grain through
🇺🇦 UA has made it VERY apparent they will not cede any land as part of peace talks
🇺🇦 Russia has slashed interest rates again as the ruble continues to stay strong, artificially inflated by energy sales in the ruble. Three months ago we thought that the ruble would crash, but that didn’t take into consideration the fact that Europe would continue to go around sanctions and buy Russian energy…especially in the ruble.
🇺🇦 This is how EU gets around sanctions: They open a bank account at Gazprom. They pay Gazprom in Euros or Dollars. Gazprom converts it to rubles. Then the Russian energy is bought with rubles. They way EU gets energy and Russia gets paid in the ruble per Putin’s demands. This effectively props up the ruble and gives it value.
🇺🇦 Russia seems to be surprised at how well their economy is still doing. It’s mostly the energy sector that is keeping they afloat. However…
🇺🇦 Russia isn’t getting the other things an advanced economy and society needs, such as basic computer chips.
🇺🇦 EU continues to investigate alternate energy resources. Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries seem to be stepping up, but it will cost more.
🇺🇦 US Sec of State Antony Blinken announced the launch of a new joint US, UK, EU task force to help support efforts of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General document war crimes and other atrocities. The new mechanism called the Atrocity Crime Advisory Group will provide strategic advice and operational assistance to war crimes units at the Office of UA Prosecutor General.
🇺🇦 Russia claims it has 8,000 UA POWs.
🇺🇦 Russia is feeling the sting of western sanctions in their consumer sector, particularly in the import of goods and components. Shortages are similar to Soviet-era shortages. Russia is going towards a policy of import substitutions, which historically led Russia to globally uncompetitive network of businesses which harmed Russia heavily after the Berlin Wall collapsed.
🇺🇦 Russia has fired more missiles in the Ukraine war than have been fired by any country in any conflict since WWII. However, these missiles are not returning very much because…
🇺🇦 Pentagon: “2-3 out of every 10 Russian missiles fired fail to launch or fizzle during its flight. 2 more have technical problems if they fly to their intended range. 2-3 more miss their aim-points even when they reach their intended target.” This means 60%-80% of missiles fired by Russias do not reach their intended target.
🇺🇦 Quite a few people have asked how to donate/support Ukraine. Here are several reputable and reliable methods I’ve found:
Methods of d0nating to Ukraine:
Red Cross - https://donate.redcrossredcrescent.org/ua/donate/~my-donation?_cv=1
World Central Kitchen - https://donate.wck.org/give/236738/#!/donation/checkout
USA for UNHCR - https://give.unrefugees.org/220224ukr_emer_d_4983/
Direct d0nations:
Purchase stamps from Ukraine on eBay (watch out for scams)
Purchase AirBNB stays
Purchase Ukraine products from Etsy
Note: It seems that the original stamp website is either down or out of production
Not: Yes, the “0” is because that word is a sure-fire way to get this email flagged by filters
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!