Thursday, November 10
Russian High Command has ordered a retreat from Kherson. Ukraine is advancing with caution
🇺🇦 Russian High Command has issued a general retreat to all surviving Russian forces in Kherson. Around 40,000 Russian troops are now officially retreating.
🇺🇦 The announcement was a highly staged and highly publicized event featuring Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
🇺🇦 Russia has ordered a retreat from Kherson, but there seems to be ongoing fighting
🇺🇦 It seems that not all RU troops received the orders and there is some chaos on what to do
🇺🇦 …or maybe this is on purpose…There is conflicting data. While eye witnesses verify retreats, there are still Russian positions in Kherson
🇺🇦 US: The timing of the Kherson retreat seems to be based on the results of the US elections
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces are now advancing on Kherson cautiously, wary of Russia’s withdrawal, and not completely trusting it
🇺🇦 Russian forces appear to be mining everything as they withdraw from the city and may plan to shell it from the other side of the Dnipro River, turning it into a "city of death.”
🇺🇦 Russian citizens are selling real estate in Crimea and fleeing. If anyone is interested, property prices have fallen, there are no tourists, they can’t make any money from renting.
🇺🇦 Deputy head of the Russian administration of the Kherson region Kirill Stremousov died in a car crash. I don’t have additional details about the circumstances. Stremousov, Ukrainian by birth, was a 45-year-old pro-Russian propagandist known for posting voluminous videos.
🇺🇦 Russia has largely ceased collecting bodies of their fallen.
🇺🇦 US: well over 100,000 Russian troops killed or wounded
🇺🇦 …or at the UK puts it, “Russia’s losses are bigger than the entire British army”
🇺🇦 Lots of thanks to the Institute for the Study of War for today’s SITREP.
🇺🇦 Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran on November 8, likely to discuss the potential sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. Russia hasn’t confirmed this.
🇺🇦 Russia’s foreign ministry is asking Kyiv for negotiations “without conditions” as a “sign of goodwill.” Opinion: lol
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is continuing efforts to covertly acquire munitions for use in Ukraine due to international sanctions. Russia is struggling to backfill Russia’s ongoing depletion of domestic munitions stockpiles.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin flew 140 million euros in cash and a selection of captured British-made NLAW anti-tank missiles, US-made Javelin anti-tank missiles, and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile to Tehran on August 20 in exchange for 160 additional Shahed-136 drones for use in Ukraine. The weapons will likely be reverse engineered and used for Iran’s weapons programs. Basically Russia is exchanging western weapons secrets for arms.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 8 that Tehran continues to supply Moscow with Mohajer, Arash, and Shahed-type drones by air and sea via both Iranian state-owned and privately-owned entities.
🇺🇦 Russian military leaders are continuing their efforts to procure dual-use (military and non-military use) goods such as computer chips, quadcopters, night vision devices, and bulletproof vests from Turkey and are using cryptocurrency transactions to avoid purchase tracking.
🇺🇦 Wagner Group forces are continuing to exaggerate their claimed territorial gains in Donbas to further distinguish themselves from proxy and conventional Russian forces.
🇺🇦 Steep Russian casualties in key battles in eastern Ukraine have prompted an unusual public outcry — and sharp criticism of military commanders — by surviving soldiers and family members of recently conscripted fighters, who say their units were led to slaughter in poorly planned operations. (Washington Post)
🇺🇦 The disproportionate financial burden of Russian force generation efforts continues to fall primarily on Russian regional governments’ budgets, prompting public backlash.
🇺🇦 Financial and bureaucratic issues are continuing to hinder Russian efforts to replenish formerly elite units defending critical areas of the front line, potentially threatening the integrity of Russian defenses in occupied parts of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 The Russian Black Sea Fleet is sheltering in the space in Crimea after the sweeping Ukrainian drone attack last week
🇺🇦 On paper, the Russian Black Sea fleet dwarfs the Ukrainian fleet, but in reality, the RU fleet has floated form disaster to disaster since the beginning of the war
🇺🇦 Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is frustrated that people are not taking his call to Holy war and volunteering their kids. From the luxury of his home says he wants to die in this war
🇺🇦 Low fidelity information suggests that Chechen forces are raping Russian junior conscripts.
🇺🇦 The Mykolaiv region seems to have been completely cleared of Russian soldiers.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom