Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Russo-Ukrainian war update. Another general died, F-16 training, and more
ℹ️ General updates
🇺🇦 29 November: A Russian general has died by landmine along the front line in Ukraine. Major General Vladimir Zavadsky, deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps, was said to have stepped on the explosive on Tuesday.
🇺🇦 No, I’ve lost count as well
🇺🇦 Additionally, 5 high-ranking Russian officials killed in strike on occupied part of Kherson Oblast
🇺🇦 Russia is attempting to make occupied regions o Ukraine seem more Russian by moving 100,000 Russian migrants from Central Asia to occupied regions of Ukraine. For Americas, the parallel would be if America decided to take over Quebec, Canada, and moved recently immigrated Southern Americans to Quebec to prove that Quebec was American.
🇺🇦 With two remaining families evacuated, all families have now been evacuated from the Kharkiv oblast
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s spy chief confirmed that his wife was poisoned by heavy metals
🇺🇦 Ukraine has a version of the US Navy Seals, and they have been participating in raids in Crimea
🇺🇦 A majority of Russians (74%) would be happy if Putin signed a peace deal with Ukraine immediately
🇺🇦 Russians are firmly against another mobilizations
🇺🇦 Putin has just called for another 170,000 troops to be mobilized
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 330,000+ troops. Troops are still dying at a rate of 1,000+ per day. This used to get headlines because it is so egregious. It is no longer news
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 6,000 drones
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 22 boats to a country that has no navy
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 1 submarine. I don’t even think I knew about this. A lot must have happened while I was away
🇺🇦 …I looked it up…Russia lost the Rostov-on-Done submarine when it was hit by a missile on September 13th. It was a total lost.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian helicopter crews are reporting that women flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale. One woman even proposed marriage by holding up a sign as they flew over
🇺🇦 Air crews, apparently enjoy interacting with civilians on the ground. For example, one air crew threw a bottle of cognac wrapped in a towel to an elderly man they spotted in a war torn landscape.
🇺🇦 The helicopters often fly just 15 feet above the ground in order to avoid Russian air defense. Ukraine’s Air Force has limited ammunition and does not have air superiority
🇺🇦 Ukraine is rushing uniforms for female soldiers after complaints that poor fitting men’s clothes are holding them back on the battlefield
🇺🇦 Winter is ravaging Ukraine. Civilians are being rescued by Ukrainian authorities
🇺🇦 Ukraine set a new speed record of 80 seconds from detection of a Russian fighting vehicle to an FPV drone destroying the vehicle.
🇺🇦 In the above situation, in Krynky, Ukraine, a Russian BTR wheeled fighting vehicle opened fire and pinned down Ukrainian troops. A Ukrainian drone commander said “just wait, we need a few minutes to get to you.” 20 seconds later, the FPV drone destroyed the BTR.
🇺🇦 I saw an instance of Russian forces using a 1910 WWI machine gun
🇺🇦 Ukrainians have enjoyed local air superiority after spending the fall targeting Russian air defenses and radio jammers along the Dnipro’s left bank.
ℹ️ F-16s
🇺🇦 F-16s still haven’t arrived in Ukraine. Progress is being made, and Ukrainians are being trained
🇺🇦 On October 25, 2023, the U.S. Air Force announced that a small number of Ukrainian pilots began training to fly F-16s. The pilots will train with the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard. This unit specializes in training international partners on the fourth-generation fighter jet.
🇺🇦 Air Force leaders have estimated that training each batch of pilots could take up to nine months on average. The training provided by the United States will complement the F-16 pilot and maintenance training that's already underway in Europe.
🇺🇦 Elections in Russia are coming up, and it seems that the Kremlin is allowing the opposition party to continue to advocate for a ceasefire in Ukraine, and otherwise criticize the Russian government, in order to preserve a veneer of electoral legitimacy, as well as delegitimize support for a ceasefire among factions in the Kremlin
🇺🇦 Putin will travel to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on December 6 and will host Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Russia on December , strengthening ties with a Russian-Iranian security partnership
ℹ️ Hamas
🇺🇦 Prior to the October 7th Hamas invasion into Israel, Russia gave captured US weapons to Hamas as a ploy to undermine Ukraine. This is according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
🇺🇦 This intelligence report said that Russia would likely make false accusations agains Ukraine for selling weapons to Hamas. Shortly after, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, released a statement saying just that.
ℹ️ Putin is counting on the US caving on Ukraine
🇺🇦 Putin is escalating attacks on Ukrainian cities for the second winter, taking advantage of Western fatigue and receiving support from some in Washington advocating for pressuring Ukraine into negotiations.
🇺🇦 Washington insiders argue for urging Ukraine to offer a cease-fire and shift from an offensive to a defensive strategy, a move opposed by Ukrainians who prefer negotiating from a position of strength.
🇺🇦 There are several fundamental problems with this argument. First of all, there’s no indication Moscow has any intention to seriously negotiate. In fact, after preparing for months, Russia is carrying out some of its largest coordinated attacks on Ukrainian cities and on the energy infrastructure on which millions of civilians depend.
🇺🇦 Last summer, Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was being "amplified" by Russian state media because he is echoing its narratives on the war in Ukraine, an expert in Russian disinformation told Newsweek. Russia was amplifying RFK more than they amplified Trump. This is old news, but related to this subtopic
ℹ️ Ukraine, domestic
🇺🇦 There is a dangerous spike in domestic violence within Ukraine
🇺🇦 Zelensky’s political opponents are calling Zelensky an authoritarian, in part because there won’t be an election this coming year.
🇺🇦 This has been a growing debate over the past few months.
🇺🇦 Some US lawmakers are demanding that Ukraine has elections next year.
🇺🇦 Ukrainians as a whole seem outraged at the notion of having elections.
🇺🇦 My research into this subject suggests that the push for elections is coming from outside of Ukraine, as indicated above
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This is old data, from late summer
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ℹ️ Civil War
🇺🇦 Putin was warned by the Russian security service that Wagner was preparing a rebellion two or three days ahead of Prigozhin’s march on Moscow
🇺🇦 When it finally happened, Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in the first few hours of the rebellion. New orders were issued for most of the day. “ then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels. There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time they did not know how to react.” This is according to security officials in Europe, and corroborated by western officials. This is consistent with public comments by CIA Director, William Burns.
🇺🇦 Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin will go to Belarus and criminal charges against him will be dropped in a deal to end his insurrection, Moscow said. The announcement caps a frenetic 36 hours in Russia but much remains uncertain, including Prigozhin's current location. Nope, he’s dead. Suicid3 by airplane
🇺🇦 A top Russian general, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, was detained by Russia in a post-mutiny crackdown.
ℹ️ The West
🇺🇦 U.S. intelligence agencies knew that the Wagner Group leader was planning an uprising against the Russian military establishment since mid-June, the Washington Post reported on June 24.
🇺🇦 According to an unnamed official who spoke with the Washington Post, the agencies did not know exactly when the rebellion would take place, but were on high alert over the past two weeks.
🇺🇦 The officials mentioned that the potential instability in Russia that could result from civil conflict was most concerning to U.S. officials.
🇺🇦 One official added that the conflict between leadership became most palpable following Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's order on June 10 that the Russian mercenary group members would have to sign contracts with the government, a move that indicated takeover of the group's military actions by the Russian state.
🇺🇦 Prigozhin will move to Belarus and avoid any charges, while mercenary forces that refuse to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry will face prosecution. Update: Nope
🇺🇦 Yevgeny Prigozhin was forced to launch his mutiny early because Russia’s security agency had learned of the plan in advance, western intelligence agencies have said.
🇺🇦 Prigozhin had stockpiled ammunition and fuel as part of a plan to arrest Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, and Gen Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff
🇺🇦 Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but that Putin refused to speak with Prigozhin.
🇺🇦 Once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind on Wagner’s prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Vaino and Gryzlov’s possible involvement was not reported on June 24.
🇺🇦 In an effort to keep its army going, Russia is raising the age of military call-ups by 5 years, with some reservists able to be mobilized at 70.
ℹ️ Ukraine counteroffensive
🇺🇦 Ukraine has for the first time liberated territory which has been under Russian control since 2014 according to British intelligence. The small patch of land is in an area near Krasnohorivka, some 10 miles south west of the city of Donetsk.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 Every Russian death is a tragedy. I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom.
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news.
Walter I’m so GLAD you’re back and ok. I was really worried.
Now Substack allows for paid subscriptions. I’d like to pledge my support financially. Maybe you could turn that on? Thanks !
Thanks Wally!