Tuesday, February 21
Russia tried to test an intercontinental ballistic missile while Biden was in Ukraine, but it failed.
🇺🇦 Russia is preparing for mass mobilization of students, warns Ukrainian intelligence
🇺🇦 Leaked document reveals an alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030. Opinion: This mirror’s Russia’s MO…cause division, install favorable leadership, then make Russia-friendly policies that bring the country under Russia’s guardianship.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued making incremental tactical gains in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks near Avdiivka. I think the math comes out to 2,000 Russian soldiers lost for every 100 yards gained.
ℹ️ US President in Kyiv
🇺🇦Biden visited Kyiv on 2/20. This is the first time a US President has entered a war zone without an American military presence.
🇺🇦Putin was made aware of this trip several hours before just to make sure that Russia didn’t accidentally get glassed
🇺🇦Russian milbloggers and media pundits were raging about Biden visiting Kyiv. The visit caused fury in Russian pro-military and ultranationalist circles, as it upstaged Putin on the eve of a major address
🇺🇦Russian milbloggers were saying it was an embarrassment to Russia. Some Russian milbloggers were making fun of Russia, saying things like, Biden got to Kyiv before Putin did.
🇺🇦Pictured: Of note, this is the first time I’ve witnessed a professional honor guard in Ukraine—rigid precision, freshly-lacquered rifles, and discipline. This was likely the Kyiv Presidential Honor Guard Battalion. I haven’t noticed this with visits from other heads of state. Previously, it seemed that their honor guard was just anyone they pulled from the field to stand still for a few minutes—which makes sense, considering the circumstances. This tells me 1) the status of the war is at a point where Kyiv can focus on the use of pageantry and ceremony to reinforce discipline, morale, and esprit de corps. 2) Ukraine holds America in a very high regard that demanded the highest honors 3) Yeah I’ll say it, I felt like those soldiers were standing at attention for me and you…and that’s probably what Zelensky hoped for.
🇺🇦Note, there were way better scenes of the honor guard lined up during the coverage but the attached is the best photograph example I could find
🇺🇦Russian TV pundits (read: propagandists) were discussing the possibilities of Biden getting @$sas1nated in Ukraine, and possible methods…such as a gas pipeline explosion, via the bodyguard in sunglasses, etc
ℹ️ Putin’s big speech:
🇺🇦Russia suspended participation in the START, the nuclear arms control treaty with the US. Opinion: While a step backwards, especially long term, this doesn’t seem like an immediate threat. I haven’t seen any indication of nuclear mobilization anywhere in the OSINT community. E.g., no movement of nuclear-capable forces, no additional activity at nuclear-capable sites, etc.
🇺🇦Opinion: I guess that was Putin’s big speech? All Russia has is threats of nuclear war. I still believe Russia does not have working nuclear capabilities, and even if they did, couldn’t field them if they had to.
🇺🇦Edit: Yup, that was Putin’s big speech. Pundits agree that there wasn’t much new in his speech.
🇺🇦Putin recycled the same lines about his rationale for invading Ukraine nearly one year ago, and he outlined no vision of how the war he launched might end.
🇺🇦In his rambling, one-hour-and-45-minute address, he offered warmed-over options from a list of complaints about the West and rehashed the same justifications for his full-scale war on Ukraine. “I want to repeat: it was they who unleashed the war,” Putin said. “And we continue to use force to stop it.”
🇺🇦Putin pledged that rotations in Ukraine would be more predictable, and that soldiers would be given much-needed leave. This was an indirect address to the discontent from personnel as well as outrage from Russian society that has filtered back to the Kremlin
🇺🇦Putin did not mention Biden once
🇺🇦From Malcontent News: PUTIN SPEECH SCORECARD: Nazis (11), Terrorists (1), Our historic lands/motherland (8), Coup (3), SMO (3), Kyiv regime (8), Nuclear weapons (7), NATO (5), Bio labs (1), We peaceful (10), Western lies (15), West was going to attack us (5), Rewrites WW2 history (3), Russophobia (3), Satan (1)
ℹ️ Biden’s big speech:
🇺🇦Putin and Biden gave competing speeches approaching the 1 year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Biden’s speech happened in Poland.
🇺🇦Biden mentioned Putin 10 times, going after the Russian leader directly as he rallied the world behind Ukraine.
🇺🇦Biden announced a new military aid package (pictured)
ℹ️ Russia’s failed intercontinental ballistic missile test subplot
🇺🇦Russia carried out a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears to have failed while Biden was in Ukraine on Monday.
🇺🇦Russia notified the United States in advance of the launch through deconfliction lines.
🇺🇦The test of the heavy SARMAT missile – nicknamed the Satan II in the West and capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads – appears to have failed.
🇺🇦Had this worked, US officials believe Putin would have highlighted the test in his State of the Nation address on Tuesday. Instead, Putin made no mention of the launch in the speech. My guess is that Putin hoped the optics of an intercontinental ballistic missile test along with withdrawing from the nuclear arms treaty would have made quite a spectacle. A relevant quote….
🇺🇦Garry Kasparov: “As I've said many times, Putin isn't a chessplayer. He's a poker player, a bluffer good at exploiting his opponents' weak resolve. The answer has always been not to play his game. Plan, set clear strategic goals, don't fall for bluffs or off the board distractions.”
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
Sure they did