Tuesday, July 11
Russian ammo depot explosions from HIMARS are so bad that they're registering on earthquake monitoring equipment in Sweden
🇺🇦 Picture credits: William B and Pete Z
🇺🇦 The Russian ammunition explosion yesterday at Nova Kakhovka was so big that earthquake monitoring equipment registered it as far away as Sweden.
🇺🇦 As a result of the above, all deputy commanders of the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Federation died except for one (call sign "Badger", he is in serious condition).
🇺🇦 Not to be outdone by Nova Kahkovka, Ukraine destroyed another Russian ammo depot in Charivne (Southern Ukraine, east of Kherson).
🇺🇦 Quick note: ammo dumps being destroyed is a perfect example of the logistical problems the west & UA faces when sending ammo & equipment to UA
🇺🇦 A large column of Russian military equipment (trucks, etc) are moving from Melitopol to Kherson. Not that it’s rosey for Ukraine, but Kherson looks kinda bleak for Russia, and Russia doesn’t want to lose this foothold
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🇺🇦 The Russian-appointed leader of a Russian occupied Ukrainian town was killed by a car bomb, in the latest high profile resistance efforts. I apologize that I forgot who asked, but someone was interested in resistance activity so I’ve been highlighting the more recently
🇺🇦 British Intelligence specifically indicates that a shortage of personnel is likely forcing the Russian Ministry of Defense to resort to "non-traditional recruiting", including recruitment in prisons.
🇺🇦 Boris Johnson’s departure as UK PM won’t change UK’s attitude nor material contribution towards Ukraine
🇺🇦 A Ukraine General stated that UA should leave the Kerch Bridge untouched so that the ‘rats can flee when we liberate Crimea”
🇺🇦 Russians have stolen absolutely anything of the smallest value from Kherson International Airport. Everything to electrical outlets, wire from the walls, tile from the floor, window frames, and bathroom fixtures. Its criminals all the way down
🇺🇦 Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN will meet tomorrow to discuss the safe export of UA grain from the Black Sea
🇺🇦 More civilian vessels have arrived in the Black Sea to export UA grain (16 I think?)
🇺🇦 Westinghouse, a US energy consortium, said they will build a nuclear power station to help the looming energy crisis in Ukraine. It will run on US-made fuel rods, not Russian fuel rods.
🇺🇦 Also, EU is connected to the UA power grid. This nuclear power plant may help Europe with their energy crisis.
🇺🇦 Yesterday I reported that Iran is going to supply Russia with drones, and I just now realized how bonkers it is that Russia is relying on Iranian aid.
🇺🇦 Putin will travel to Iran to meet with the leaders of Iran and Turkey. This mostly has to do with Syria, and not Ukraine. Russia wants to be the hegemonic power in the Mid East as the US leaves. Iran’s form of government aligns with Russia far better than other alliances, such as China.
🇺🇦 Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not claim any new territorial control on July 12
🇺🇦 HIMARS continue to have a devastating effect. Russian S400s were were claimed to be able to defend against HIMARS, but that’s turning out not to be the case. They can’t lock on to American HIMARS systems. It’s not even that they’re shot and missing, they just can’t lock onto them.
🇺🇦 Russia promised this feature to many countries it sold S400s to. ‘Buy our equipment because it can lock onto US artillery.’ Nope. China and India, take note, you’re the buyers I’m talking about
🇺🇦 The Euro has hit parity with the Dollar. The use of the dollar as the go-to currency and safe haven in the world as the world goes to war has boosted the value of the dollar in recent weeks. The US dollar is at a 20-year high against all developed currencies. So if you want to travel to Europe or China, nows the time to do it because your money will go a lot further.
Edit: 🇺🇦 By the time I finished making today’s post, yet another ammo dump was destroyed in Lukhansk.
🇺🇦 Russian milbloggers are having an absolute meltdown about all of Russia’s ammo being destroyed and that Russia is struggling so bad agains the HIMARS. Russia seems to be like, really bad as a conventional army.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!