Tuesday, July 19
HIMARS, Crimea, and experimental mutant troops...is a sentence I never thought I'd write
✈️ I’m 0 for 2 in identifying Russian aircraft. (For the substack readers not on social media…I got a picture of an Su-34 bomber from Getty Images, and it turned out to be an Su-57. After I posted the picture last night, a bunch of military planners promptly let me know how wrong it was!)
🇺🇦 Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-35 over Kherson today. Pictured: Russian Su-35.
🇺🇦 DID I GET IT RIGHT THAT TIME?
🇺🇦 Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, is asking Russia for protection against HIMARS.
🇺🇦 ….This is the same Ramzan Kadyrov that said he was just waiting for order from Putin to smash the west to smithereens.
🇺🇦 Russia forcibly deported 108 Ukrainian orphans from Donetsk Oblast and placed them up for adoption.
🇺🇦 The US has added Russia to the human trafficking and child soldiers list.
🇺🇦 Die Welt reported that a list of weapons delivered to Ukraine by Germany shows a reduction in supplies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been repeatedly criticized for blocking arms deliveries to Ukraine and breaking his promises on military support.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is in talks to use western weapons to take back Crimea. This is coming from multiple credible news outlets citing the New York Times.
🇺🇦 Russia says it is losing because Ukraine has experimental mutant troops created in secret labs. That claim was made Monday by two Russian lawmakers heading up a commission to investigate “biolaboratories” in Ukraine. It’s like, reverse propaganda.
🇺🇦 The Wall Street Journal repots that Ukraine’s military is having a logistical nightmare getting western weapons operational at the frontlines, citing a lack of commonalities and ammunition across weapons.
🇺🇦 The White House is expected to announce a new package of military aid to Ukraine this week, John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the U.S. National Security Council, said, as cited by online newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda. Kirby clarified that the new aid package will include additional HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, as well as additional ammunition for rocket launchers and artillery.
🇺🇦 Russian nationalists and pro-war media voices are pushing Putin to expand Russia’s war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war. Opinion: It’s fairly apparent that Russia is already going 200% into this war, and that these Russian nationalists think that Russia is still holding back.
🇺🇦 I’ve never written “smithereens” in my entire life, and now I’ve written it three times in the past 24 hours, thanks to a guy who looks like Dwight’s cousin Mose
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!