Tuesday, July 26
Russia's economy and space stations...are a weird combo for a Ukraine SITREP but here we are
🚀 Russia will pull out of the International Space Station by 2024, and announced intentions to build their own outpost
🚀 (…because a space station is the next obvious choice when you don’t have the means nor technology to build a replacement barrel for a tank)
🇺🇦 The US will accept wounded UA soldiers for treatment at the American military hospital in Germany
🇺🇦 The EU may double the import of UA electricity to offset the lower gas import from Russia
🇺🇦 Putin has asked Turkish president Erdogan to build a Baykar factory in Russia. Baykar is the company that makes the Bayraktar drones that Ukrain is using against Russia.
🇺🇦 Baykar’s CEO Haluk Bayraktar previously said that his company wouldn't sell the drones to Russia. “Turkey supports Ukraine with combat drones. We would never do that,” he said.
🇺🇦 A pro-Russian Ukrainian lawmaker, Vadym Stolar, has sold his television channels in order to get out of being classified an oligarch. As mentioned last week, one of the criteria in the new anti-oligarch law is having considerable influence over media (along with being involved in politics).
🇺🇦 UA is asking the US to supply gas to prepare for this winter’s heating season.
🇺🇦 UA is building up its sUAS (small drones) force. UAS have been vital to Ukraine, and are buying 200 recon drones and thousands of civilian models, as well as training operators.
🇺🇦 There are some interesting spy subplots going on, I just don’t have the bandwidth to report on them all!
🇺🇦 Ukraine has placed Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul on list of Russian propagandists
💸 Economics:
🇺🇦 The Kremlin continues to release cherry-picked economic data, which gets carelessly repeated by well-meaning pundits. This data is then used to build out forecasts which are cheery, though excessively favorable to the Kremlin. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Russia is doing better than expected despite sanctions. This data tosses unfavorable metrics. Here’s the reality…
🇺🇦 Russian imports have largely collapsed, creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies.
🇺🇦 Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill.
🇺🇦 Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP
🇺🇦 Russia’s one bit of leverage, cutting natural gas, doesn't appear to be working, because only 46% of Europe's gas comes from Russia, whereas 83% of Russian natural gas exports go to Europe, meaning the cuts actually hurt Russia more than Europe.
🇺🇦 Russia has no capacity to replace lost businesses, products, nor talent
🇺🇦 Russia’s domestic financial markets are the worst performing markets in the entire world (that is not hyperbole, that’s a peer-reviewed statistic)
🇺🇦 A Yale University paper on the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy says “there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as allied countries remain unified in maintaining…sanctions pressure against Russia”
🇺🇦 “Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual”
🇺🇦 Things are not rosy for Ukrain, however. Ukraine energy giant Naftogaz defaulted on foreign bonds forth $335m.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is seeking a $15-$20 billion loan from the IMF aimed at stabilizing the country's shrinking economy.
🇺🇦 Multiple UA state-owned companies are requesting a freeze on debt payments for 2 years.
⚔️Operations:
🇺🇦 Russian proxy and occupation leadership is enunciating expedited deadlines for the capture of Ukrainian territory to align with the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare for the annexation of occupied territories into the Russian Federation.
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted limited attacks long the front lines, but they are focusing on defense in Southern Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted a limited attack northwest of Izyum, likely to secure Russian rear areas on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics nodes in Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is continuing to constitute regional volunteer battalions for deployment into Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian intelligence leaks continue to reveal the Kremlin’s annexation agendas for occupied Ukraine by way of falsified referenda.
🇺🇦 The Pentagon says that Russian military at all levels are deserting. While undoubtedly true, and likely wide spread, take note that it can’t be assumed that a Russian will desert, as many are fiercely loyal. Many chose to be on the front lines.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian defenders retake Andriivka, Kherson region
🚀 Pictured: the International Space Station. I totally nailed that vis-recce 🙌
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!