🇺🇸 Pictured: Ukrainians pictured in the Washington DC July 4th parade thanking the United States for standing with Ukraine (Credit: Jen M…Thanks for the awesome pic, Jen!)
🇺🇸 Not going to lie, I teared up when I watched the Ukrainian production of UA singers singing our National Anthem as a sign of gratitude.
🇺🇦 A Russian executive linked to Russian energy giant Gazprom was found shot dead in his swimming pool in latest mystery death of country's tycoons.
🇺🇦 While it’s reasonable that people who lost a bunch of money would suddenly ‘jump out of windows’ like in America’s stock market crash in the 1920s, there is an extraordinary number of people connected with Gazprom suddenly dying
🇺🇦 Lots of high profile arrests are happening in Russia right now…from executives to hockey stars. All of it is designed to “cleanse” Russia of “traitors”. Basically, people in positions of power that say negative things about Putin or the war are going to jail.
🇺🇦 NATO allies signed accession protocols for Finland and Sweden.
🇺🇦 Russian withdrew forces from Finnish border, despite ascension to NATO, which is almost certainly a sign of ongoing troop mobilization problems
🇺🇦 Intercepted calls suggest Russian troops think their commanders are selling their positions for cash.
🇺🇦 Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and appears to have directed troops to take an operational pause. There was an award ceremony and everything.
🇺🇦 Former Russian commanders and milbloggers are posting scathing commentary on the taking of Lysychansk, saying it served no real purpose and it came at too high of a cost. Most military planners seem to agree with this assessment.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces are increasingly targeting Russian military infrastructure with indirect fire and US-provided HIMARS systems deep in occupied territory.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are consolidating territorial and administrative control over Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults north of Kharkiv City.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian partisan activity is targeting Russian railway lines around Melitopol and Tokmak.
🇺🇦 There was a massive strike on an airfield in Melitopol. It resulted in a ‘colossol’ loss, with 500 RU injured (300) or killed (200)
🇺🇦 Russian leadership may be setting conditions for the conscription of Ukrainian citizens living in occupied territories.
🇺🇦 The days of updates once every 48 hours is coming, so just be prepared!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!