Tuesday, June 14
President Zelensky: “Tell people in the occupied territories that the Ukrainian army will come”
🇺🇦 Pictured: President Zelensky urged everyone who is in contact with people in occupied territories that the Ukrainian army is coming. “We will come to Kherson…We will come to Melitopol….We will come to Mariupol. Tell them that the Ukrainian army will come.”
🇺🇦 Russia does not have enough troops. For example, to advance towards Slovyansk they left the flanks uncovered in Izyum. The problem for the Ukrainians is that they are running out of ammunition and the Russian artillery is superior
🇺🇦 One of Ukraine’s successes is due to the ramp up of its special forces. And there’s a reason for that…
🇺🇦 UA’s special forces has doubled in size since 2014. And there’s a reason for that…
🇺🇦 After the Russian invasion in 2014, the United States began training Ukraine's operators, and this lead to the performance we’re seeing on the battlefield. This, of course, does not discount the amount of motivation UA fighters have; it just shows that a well-trained force, with sufficient motivation, can take on insurmountable odds.
🇺🇦 Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has gone missing from prison. His lawyers went to visit him at the penal colony and they were told there is no record of him being there
🇺🇦 Putin’s legs buckled during a speech in Moscow fueling the growing rumors that he has health issues
🇺🇦 The United States is working to ensure that Ukraine receives the largest possible amount of assistance and as soon as possible. It’s not an easy task to deliver weapons. The logistics end up being more difficult than the actual delivery. Weapon delivery logistics could be a whole dedicated post
👉 War of attrition:
🇺🇦 Russia does not have enough troops. For example, to advance towards Slovyansk they left the flanks uncovered in Izyum. The problem for the Ukrainians is that they are running out of ammunition and the Russian artillery is superior
🇺🇦 Russia may be only a few months away from a cease fire, given how much of its military arsenal has been spent.
🇺🇦 Russia is using tanks sourced in its Far East because it is out of tanks in the west.
🇺🇦 UA has destroyed more than 1,400 Russian tanks.
🇺🇦 Before you get your hopes up, it is unknown if UA or RU will win this war of attrition. UA is still massively outgunned, and Russia dumping equipment and lives at the problem may pay off for them.
🇺🇦 …Then again, maybe it’s a race against Putin’s health
👉 Operations: (Thanks to the Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Russia continues to deploy insufficiently prepared volunteer and reserve forces to reinforce its ongoing operations.
🇺🇦 It seems that Russian volunteer/reservists are getting 10 days of training before being sent to fight
🇺🇦 Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk
🇺🇦 Russia has not captured the city.
🇺🇦 Russia has a reluctancy to enter the city and commit (likely weak) infantry to clearing resistance.
🇺🇦 Russia has an over reliance on artillery due to poor moral.
🇺🇦 Russian forces carried out unsuccessful ground assaults in an attempt to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communications near Popasna and Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in a likely attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces continued to gradually attack Russian positions in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian artillery struck Russian fuel and ammunition depots in Polohy, approximately 60km west of Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border
🇺🇦 Russian authorities may have staged false flag attacks in Melitopol and Berdyansk on June 12, likely to accuse Ukrainian partisans of targeting civilians
🇺🇦 These staged terrorist activities in Melitopol and Berdyansk were done to concede with Russia Day (June 12).
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities continue to face personnel shortages that impede their occupation measures.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities continue to introduce new titles for personnel that agreed to cooperate with the Kremlin and its proxies.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are continuing to exploit Ukrainian agrobusiness.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are coercing Kherson Oblast businessmen and farmers to hand over 70% of their harvest to Crimean buyers at low profit margins.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palistine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
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