Tuesday, June 21
The Azot plant is the new Azovstal. Also, RU AF pilots are trained to impress senior officials, not for combat
🇺🇦 Pictured: Posting an updated map for reference
🇺🇦 Every day, Ukraine k1lls at least five Russian officers, one of which is a senior officer (Thanks JB). As an aside Ukraine kills one general for every 100 soldiers.
🇺🇦 The oil rigs hit yesterday were being used as military bases
🇺🇦 The oil rigs can’t be extinguished and ships can’t get close to them. The fire(s) have reached the borehole.
🇷🇺 Reminder: Russia literally stole these oil rigs from Ukraine, and towed them back to occupied Crimea. That’s what state-level organized crime looks like.
🇺🇦 Luxembourg committed 15% of its defense budget to support Ukraine Army
🇷🇺 Russian leadership has reportedly set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border, which will likely result in intensified efforts to take full control of Severodonetsk and move westward towards the Oblast border
🇺🇦 A UA official reported that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the industrial zone, specifically, the Azot plant. This really is turning out like Mariupol.
🇺🇦 The T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway is central to Russia’s advance in Severodonetsk
🇷🇺 Russian forces are likely intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway
🇷🇺 Russian forces will continue efforts to clear the Azot plant and complete encirclement operations south of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk by driving up the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
🇷🇺 Russian authorities are trying to leverage the consequences of Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in order to force the West into weakening its sanctions. As a reminder, the sanctions are NOT contributing in ANY way to Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports
🇷🇺The head of state-owned propaganda outlet RT, Margarita Simonyan, stated that the famine caused by Russia’s blockade on grain exports will force the rest of the world to lift sanctions in order to curb further effects of global famine
🇷🇺 Russia has begun broadcasting Russian state propaganda in the occupied Kherson oblast.
🇷🇺Russian training procedures for air force personnel are scripted and designed to impress senior officials but do not adequately prepare personnel for the challenges of active air combat.
🇷🇺Russia’s poor-performing Air Force has contributed significantly to UA’s successes. With RU’s air losses, RU’s AF is largely risk-averse, failing to establish air superiority or give Russian forces a decisive advantage in Ukraine.
🇷🇺Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.
🇷🇺Russian forces are continuing defensive operations along the Southern Axis
🇺🇦 Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.
🇩🇪German howitzers have been delivered to Ukraine
🇺🇸I discovered that multi-emoji bullet points are time consuming!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.