🇺🇦 The US is supplying UA with 20 patrol boats to protect their waters
🇺🇦 Turkey says it will no longer block efforts by Finland and Sweden to join the Nato military alliance - after the three nations announced they'd reached an agreement. This was the largest hurdle to NATO ascension.
🇺🇦 Sweden has agreed to step up its work on Turkish extradition requests of suspected militants, and the two Nordic nations will lift their restrictions on selling weapons to Turkey. Sweden and Finland are outstanding arms makers, so Turkey is happy about this. The Biden admin is also supportive of the deal.
🇺🇦 Their accession, once complete, will bring the number of NATO countries bordering the Baltic Sea to seven, effectively turning it into a NATO lake.
🇺🇦 Pictured: The map of what NATO looks like
🇺🇦 It looks like Finland and Sweden will get formal invitations to join NATO tomorrow.
🇺🇦 Russia responded by saying they’re going to bolster their border with nuclear weapons because they’re a broken record and that’s all they need to say. Putin, all I can say is for your sake I hope you don’t have any corrupt oligarchs that would dare skim off the completely void of oversight nuclear maintenance anytime in the past 30 years.
🇺🇦 Turkey is getting what it wants, Finland and Sweden are getting what they want, NATO is getting what it wants…the only person not getting what they want is Putin, whose actions forced this deal to happen.
🇺🇦 UA forces will likely conduct a fighting withdrawal from Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast which will force RU to culminate prematurely.
🇺🇦 Russian forces from Severodonestk will need to regroup before participating in the current campaign. They will have to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive. This will be difficult because they destroyed the three main bridges.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to look for additional reserves to replenish personnel losses in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to initiate rotations or provide combat-ready manpower.
🇺🇦 Defense Sec of UK and the most senior general in UK, said UK must mobilize against the threat Russia poses, with the new army’s chief invoking the allies struggle against Nazi Germany.
🇺🇦 He said there is a very real danger that Russia will lash out against Europe, and with today’s long range weapons and stealth technology, that UK is not protected by distance (paraphrasing). Opinion: It’s probably not that dire, however, he said that there are gaps discovered due to the invasion of Ukraine and he aims to shore that up
🇺🇦 NATO says it does not consider China an adversary, but is concerned with the relationship and tacit support of Russia. China isn’t providing material support but is providing diplomatic support.
😬😬😬The G20 presidency has ruled out Putin’s participation in the upcoming G20 summit in November
🇺🇦 He’s saying it would be awkward for Putin to be there with Western nations.
🇺🇦 After Russia’s rocket strike on the shopping center, Macron said France would support Ukraine as long as needed to end this war, calling the strike a warcrime.’ Russia cannot win this war’
🇺🇦 Russia said it struck an ammo depot. That “ammo depot” was actually the shopping mall.
🇺🇦 G7 summit pledge $5 billion for global food security
🇺🇦 UA forces are training on NASAMS systems. This is a medium-to-long range surface to air missile. It’s one of the most advanced systems the US has.
🇺🇦 Russia is relying on reserve officers due to heavy losses.
🇺🇦 Former Russian president Medvedev said that Crimea is forever Russia’s and any attempt to encroach upon it would be seen as an act of war.
🇺🇦 Medvedev said that if NATO is the one to invade Crimea that it would lead to World War III. I don’t know how much this has to be explained, but NATO is a defensive alliance. Invading Crimea isn’t something they’re considering.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!