Tuesday, June 6
A major dam was blown up at the Dnipro River, triggering a major humanitarian crisis and affecting frontline activity
ℹ️ General updates
🇺🇦 Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets
🇺🇦 Ukraine has begun providing them with drones to stage attacks, multiple sources say
🇺🇦 It is *unknown* if these are the drowns used to target the Kremlin and Moscow sites over the past month, however, some US officials believe it to be the case. (I don’t. More on this later)
🇺🇦 US officials could not conclusively say how Ukraine may have gotten drones behind Russian lines.
🇺🇦 These are not US-made drones.
🇺🇦 Ukraine has repeated multiple times that nobody should be talking about its counteroffensive plans. They’re talking about milbloggers, OSINT researchers, and people like me. “Plans love silence. There will be no announcement about the start”. ‘Words are unnecessary. They can only do harm.’
🇺🇦 In Russia, several radio stations and local TV networks appear to have been hacked to broadcast a deep fake address allegedly by president Putin. This fake address announced mass mobilization and introduced martial law in border regions
🇺🇦 America has so far spent $76.8b for Ukraine assistance. This is 9% of the US military budget. (Or 0.02% of US taxpayer money)
🇺🇦 76.8b is broken down as such:
$3.9b for humanitarian…emergency food, refugee support, etc
$26.4b is for financial support…keeping the company running. grants, loans, financial support to keep the lights and water on so they can keep paying their people. Because if the government collapses, they will no longer be able to fight a war
$46.6b is military assistance. Security assistance $18.3b, which is training and wages, etc. Weapons and equipment $23.5b. $4.7b for grants and loans for additional weapon equipment (foreign military financing). A lot of that is loans.
$17b of the above is in loans that we’ll get paid back.
🇺🇦 Ukraine has retrieved 2,500 POWs since start of Russian full-scale invasion.
🇺🇦 Bulgaria's new defense minister vows to support Ukraine with military aid.
🇺🇦 Ukraine will receive a "significant number" of F-16 fighter jets, based on discussions with European partners
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of June 5-6.
🇺🇦 Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to directly threaten the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Russian military command if they do not fulfill his demands for a larger independent army and political influence in Russia.
🇺🇦 Chechen forces have been largely operating in the rear after participating in the battles for Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. The Kremlin may be trying to reintroduce Chechen forces to primary fighters now that Wagner has culminated
🇺🇦 Republican senator Lindsey Graham said “Russians are dying…the best money we ever spent.” This caused Russia to issue an arrest warrant for the senator. Graham responded by saying “See you in The Hague”
🇺🇦 Chinese officials are trying to urge European diplomats to end the conflict before it escalates further. Opinion: Russia has culminated and there is no room for escalation
🇺🇦 Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to use infrastructure projects to integrate occupied territories into Russia.
ℹ️ Kakhovka dam subplot
🇺🇦 The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant has been completely destroyed after the turbine blew up. It can’t be repaired. This is a major humanitarian and environmental disaster
🇺🇦 With the dam destroyed, widespread flooding is happening around the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. The flooding affects the front line. The dam is in Russian-controlled territory.
🇺🇦 The reservoir will be drained within 4 days.
🇺🇦 Ukraine soldiers witnessed Russian soldiers get swept away
🇺🇦 This dam held back a body of water the size of the Great Salt Lake in Utah. This will have far-reaching consequences both upstream and downstream.
🇺🇦 Both Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the attack.
🇺🇦 Russia says Ukraine did this because Ukraine wants to more easily defend their territory and Ukraine says Russia blew up the dam to prevent Ukrainian troops from crossing the river downstream. Opinion: based on that information, I surmise that Russia did this. Ukraine almost always takes credit for their attacks, and Russia almost always tries to hide credit for their attacks.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials say that the dam was blown up by Russia’s 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade. The US says we cannot conclusively say who was responsible
🇺🇦 This is the river that cools the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, although there is no immediate threat reported.
🇺🇦 Swedish dam engineers modeled a worst-case scenario of a breach in this dam, and they say that it is worse than predicted. This is because the modeling didn’t predict such high levels of the reservoir, which reached a 30-year high last month
🇺🇦 The above model was created when Zelenskyy received intelligence last October that Russia had rigged the dam with mines
🇺🇦 Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, will lead an IAEA mission to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after the Kakhovka dam demolition.
🇺🇦 The European Union will help Ukraine with the aftermath of the Kakhovka dam breach, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on June 6.
🇺🇦 Wheat prices around the world will go up as a result of this flooding (For the economy nerds: The price has since rises 3% to $6.40 per bushel)
🇺🇦 The zoo in occupied Nova Kakhovka has completely flooded; all animals but birds are dead
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War has not yet observed clear evidence of what transpired at the dam, which means there is no unclass verification of what happened
🇺🇦 Russia released a video in which the Russian head of the Kherson Oblast said all the people are well and calmly walking down the street…but in the background, there is no more street because it’s underwater
ℹ️ Older news:
🇺🇦 Russia released a video that says their Ka-52 attack helicopter destroyed a “Leopard 2’s” which was actually farm equipment they were destroying
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war, on the night of May 27. Ukraine shot down 58 of 59 of them.
🇺🇦 Moscow was allegedly attacked by 8 large drones. Drones are my domain, and there is too much wrong with this data to believe any of it. The purported drones have an odd forward canard which isn’t a style of drone that Ukraine has used in theater. The camera work looks off. Russia claims that they shot down all 8, but then they also claim that a drone hit a building. This isn’t Ukraine’s MO. There’s just too much wrong to lend much credibility to any of this. If Moscow was attacked, the data being released isn’t enough to draw any conclusions on. Independent media can’t confirm the authenticity of the claims.
🇺🇦 I’ve read a bunch of OSINT on this drone attack and all I’m hearing are claims, including claims from propagandists. Some alleged pictures, like the one above, posted by a Russian milblogger.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news