🇺🇦 Pictured: Russia has spent decades positioning itself as the west’s spoiler, with aggressive scorched-earth tactics, and military doctrine that involved killing civilians in order to frighten the public. Now Ukraine is receiving ammunition and shells from all over the world, and on these shells and armaments are inscriptions like "For the shot Prague Spring” "Revenge on MH17,” "For Katyn!" "For Kaczynski,” and on and on
🇺🇦 The nature of urban combat in Severodonetsk is making it difficult to compile reports of who is in control of what area. Multiple reputable reporters give reports then clarify them later.
🇺🇦 To this end, Russian forces may have control over most of Severodonetsk, though the exact situation in the city remains unclear. Control of terrain changes often. Lots of chaos.
🇺🇦 The one thing that is consistent is that every source I have says the situation is unclear and that it changes rapidly, with conflicting reporting. The fact is that the city has not been liberated, nor captured.
🇺🇦 Russian forces in the Izyum area did not make any advances in the past 48 hours, while forces advancing west from Lyman secured minor gains.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to sever Ukrainian lines of communication northeast of Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 Limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks in the pst 48 hours forced Russian troops to focus on holding defensive lines north of Kharkiv City.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are advancing efforts to issue Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens and cement their control over occupied territories.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian naval forces are challenging Russian dominance over the northwestern part of the Black Sea and are preventing Russian warships from operating close to the shoreline.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km from the Ukrainian coast
🇺🇦 This will reduce the pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s southern ports.
🇺🇦 Russian naval forces are pulled back and relying heavily on coastal defense systems in occupied Kherson and Crimea rather than seaborne air defenses—this is why they were fighting so hard for Snake Island. To that point…
🇺🇦 Russia seems to still have Snake Island, and is installing new anti-air systems there
🇺🇦 The fight for Severodonetsk is a Russian information operation. Its main purpose is to create the impression that Russia has regained its strength and will now overwhelm Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Putin’s hope is that by crawling forward with a massive artillery barrages to obliterate everything in its path, that it will break the will of Ukraine. This likely won’t work. The Russian military is an increasingly-spent force that cannot achieve a decisive victory.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s military started practical classes on shooting from PzH 2000 self-propelled Howitzers
🇺🇦 Russia came to an agreement with Kyiv and Ankara (Capital of Turkey) on a scheme to release grain shipments from Odessa. The way this would work is that Turkey would de-mine territorial waters around Odessa to allow for commercial shipments. They would then escort these shipments to neutral territorial waters. From there, they would be escorted by Russian ships through the Bosporus straight, which is owned by Turkey. Once the grain shipments leave the straights, they enter international waters, which are largely patrolled by the US navy.
🇺🇦 I don’t trust any of the above…this entire thing sounds like a scheme for Russia to get free de-mining, as well as free grain. And to my point…
🚩 This morning, Russia was like, no, Ukraine will need to de-mine the area instead of Turkey. The Kremlin spokesperson said that Ukraine de-mining the area is essential for commercial vessels to get into Odessa’s ports. Hey UA, I’ve seen this movie. It ends with a bunch of dudes climbing out of a wooden horse
🇺🇦 The entire Middle East is facing food shortages because of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The entire African continent is under steep threat of famine.
🇺🇦 The families of the sailors who went down on the Moskva are not being compensated as promised, and are being threatened with jail time if they talk about their missing family members.
🇺🇦 What’s the value difference between a dollar and a ruble? About a dollar. Heyoo! (That was to make up for the last two super-bummer bullet points)
🇺🇦 Thank you especially to Institute for the Study of War today
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
I do not understand why Turkey would agree to let Russian ships conduct escort duties through the Bosporus straight. This sounds like the Russians will try to slip extra ships into the Black Sea.