🇺🇦 By request, a soothing narrated version of the SITREP. (Audio up!) More after the video…
🇺🇦 Russia’s military parade was far smaller than previous years. The Air Force canceled the fly over and there weren’t that many tanks
🇺🇦 There was no Z iconography at Russia’s Victory Day parade
🇺🇦 Russia (or a Russian proxy) started putting out fake draft/mobilization letters. The purpose is (supposedly) disinformation and to erode the west’s trust in western media.
🇺🇦 Pundits think that Putin didn’t escalate because he’s reading the room and thinks there’s no public spirits for more than what’s currently going on
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Defense Ministry mocked Russia's Victory Day military parade by holding a 'parade' with captured Russian tanks
🇺🇦 Ukraine has upgraded its war goals: "Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba says ‘picture of victory’ has shifted to full liberation of territories from Russian occupation" No more DNR, LNR or Russia-annexed Crimea.
🇺🇦 The US giving UA realtime intelligence sharing are not official positions; this information came from leaks and were not intended to be publicly known.
🇺🇦 Russia doesn’t have palletized nor containerized logistics. This causes a cascading issue that prevents Russia from warfighting. For example, Russia drives a truck full of ammo into the war zone, and it just sits there until all the ammo is used.
🇺🇦 Palletized logistics is a problem America figured out like 80 years ago. US Intelligence believed that Russia would have matched America’s pallet/container operation. Forklift operators are the real heroes!
🇺🇦 Before the war, Odessa citizens were about 60% pro-Ukraine, now it’s about 90% (MSN.com)
🇺🇦 Opinion: a large number of Russian oligarchs have died recently (7, if I recall correctly). They are all described as “mysterious”. At the moment I haven’t read any concrete indication of foul play, just circumstance. These seems more analogous to the stock market crash in the ‘20s, where people jumped out of windows after seeing their balance sheets wiped out
🇺🇦 Russian oligarchs aren’t welcomed in Russia because the people know they’ve stolen everything, and they’re not welcome in the larger world because everyone sees them as accomplices to Putin, so they only place they’re welcome is in Moscow…and now they don’t have any of their “f-you” money or influence
Operations (thanks especially to the Institute for the Study of War):
🇺🇦 Russia has a renewed focus on Odessa, and has stepped up missile attacks and bombings
🇺🇦 Russia used one of their hypersonic missiles on Odessa
🇺🇦 The Odessa push seems like revenge and anger rather than actual strategy. Putin couldn’t capture Odessa, and has no ability to take it so now he’s just destroying its infrastructure. The targets have no military advantage (Eg, a mall)
🇺🇦 Russian forces did not make any advances around Izyum on May 9 but are likely attempting to concentrate the forces necessary to resume offensive operations in the coming days.
🇺🇦 Russian forces made marginal gains around Severodonetsk (Middle East Ukraine).
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to amass troops in Belgorod Oblast to stop Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv City from reaching the Ukrainian-Russian border.
🇺🇦 Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast (300mi downriver from Kyiv, on the way to the Black Sea) are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin continues to face severe force mobilization challenges, and ongoing mobilization efforts are unlikely to generate substantial combat power. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner Group “urgently” requested hundreds of thousands of additional troops to reinforce Russian efforts in Donbas
🇺🇦 Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.”
🇺🇦 Russian troops in Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting in many areas has stalled out against Ukrainian resistance.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
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