I’ve been saving this update for when I’m not feeling well and can’t do much research:
Is Russia even a nuclear power?
☢️ There may be a big reason neither US nor NATO are scared of Russia’s nuclear weapons…
☢️ Previously, I opined that based on Russia’s equipment failures and battlefield tactical amateurism, that I had low confidence that Russia could field a nuclear weapon even if they had to. My illustrative examples were rusted release mechanisms or untrained personnel. The reality may be a more complicated version of this speculation.
☢️ Nuclear weapons have a shelf life because the radioactive materials include tritium. Tritium has a half-life of 12.5 years, so it goes away over time. Worse, its decay product is Helium-3, which absorbs neutrons, so it’s critical to refresh the boosting gas periodically. The exact interval is a closely held secret but there is broad agreement that it is at most every 10 years, and unlikely to be much less than 5 for practical reasons. Whatever the interval, it’s a simple matter of math to work out that every bomb needs about 0.2 grams of new Tritium per year on average.
☢️ The problem is that tritium is really expensive. The maintenance of weapons that nobody ever expected to really use, using extremely expensive materials (tens of thousands of dollars of tritium per warhead, totaling $30 million a year), is absolutely ripe for corruption and skimming to ruin, especially since there's no easy way for someone to hold you accountable and check your work, and if they were to be used and proved to be duds, you'd have bigger problems to worry about with a nuclear war going on.
🤑 Documented examples of Russian corruption reducing Russia’s war fighting ability:
🤑 Russian state arms manufacturer created “Iron Outlaw” body armor…armor that could supposedly stop a .50 cal bullet. UA forces are instead finding body armor with thick cardboard as the protective plating
🤑 Russia has outfitted their tanks with bricks of reactive armor. However, UA forces are finding much of this reactive armor is just egg crates in a metal casing
🤑 UA explosive teams that are de-mining previously-occupied areas are finding sticks of dynamite….that are just a fuse attached to a block of wood
🤑 Russian small drones are using hobby-grade parts
🤑 Some shot-down Russian planes have store-bought GPS taped to their dash.
🤑 I think this works pretty well as a corruption emoji!
Back to normal updates:
🇺🇦 Russia has run out of reservists and is now recruiting private military companies and proxy militias, just to keep the fight going.
🇺🇦 This is somewhat shocking because we assumed Russia had a strong reserve core.
🇺🇦 Over 260 Mariupol defenders evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant to Russian occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16. While good news, the problem is most of them were sent to a hospital that is the site of a filtration center. We know that 211 UA soldiers went in, so let’s see if 211 come out.
🇺🇦 Update: Azovstal has reportedly fallen as the remaining fighters have been evacuated. I can’t get a good handle on what is happening. This is a developing situation and higher fidelity data is forthcoming. UA stated that their mission was complete, and the Azovstal defenders said they had accomplished their mission of holding out and distracting Russia.
🇺🇦 Besides an assume interrogation of POWs, it seems like Russia is going to question the defenders for crimes committed in Mariupol
🇺🇦 Pictured: Busses of Azovstal defenders leaving the factory escorted by Russian forces.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground operations in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and did not make any confirmed advances on May 16.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to fortify their positions in Zaporizhia Oblast.
🇺🇦 Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is growing in occupied areas of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 In Syria, Russia shot anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli jets. No jets were hit.
🇺🇦 Putin took personal command of Russia’s faltering Donbas offensive. These are low-level tactical decisions usually made by much more junior officers. Imagine an American president personally commanding 700 troops.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!