🇺🇦 One of the reasons Russia is so bad at war is because Putin is making tactical decisions. Putin is an intelligence officer who has never seen a battlefield in his life; he’s never fought any wars. He’s trying to fight a distributed war hundreds or thousands of miles away (depending on where he’s hiding)
🇺🇦 Lyman is another town in eastern Ukraine essential for Russia’s encirclement efforts. I mention that because…
🇺🇦 Russian forces launched an offensive on Lyman
🇺🇦 Russia completely devastated the city with artillery. This is Russia’s MO…they obliterate the city with artillery, then move on the rubble. However, after the artillery, there were not a lot of Russian troops who tried to march into the city after the artillery strikes. Because of that…
🇺🇦 Lyman is still under Ukrainian control.
🇺🇦 There are still missile strikes going on through the night.
🇺🇦 Ukraine forces killed Major General Kanamat Botashev who was piloting an SU-25 over Luhansk. That said, he was no longer in Russia’s armed forces, and he was flying for the Wagner group, so this technically doesn’t count towards the general kill count.
🇺🇦 Russian nationalist figures are increasingly criticizing Moscow for the ‘special military operation.’
🇺🇦 Russia is putting a bunch of T-62 tanks on the front line. These tanks were designed 65 years ago, and production ceased in 1975. Some went through a modernization phase in 1983. Those were largely replaced by T64 tanks. Of the 2500 T-62 tanks that were mothballed, intelligence says 250 were able to be brought online through salvage. And now they’re on the from line.
🇺🇦 This, of course, means Russia has run out of operable equipment, or at least the reserves of their more moderns T-80s and T-90s
🇺🇦 Russia cannot produce any more modern tanks because of parts shortages due to sanctions.
🇺🇦 Turkey will hold consultation with Finland and Sweden, in a departure from Turkey’s prior position the Finland and Sweden should not bother to join NATO.
🇺🇦 US has boosted it’s presence significantly in Europe since the start of UA war. The US has 102,000 troops in Europe (not Russia!) which includes land, ground, and sea. This is a 30% increase.
🇺🇦 Pictured: After two months, my stamps finally got here! Support a Ukrainian directly, buy some stamps
🇺🇦 Russia is still dug in, so there isn’t much more operational data today. So instead, let’s talk…
All about yesterday:
🇺🇦 Yesterday I mentioned a worst case situation in which Russia won by attrition by throwing bodies at the meat grinder. This caused heated debate. Let me clarify:
🇺🇦 Ukraine has raised something like 700,000 troops. They’re highly motivated and they have western weapons and western intelligence. This is compared to Russia’s 200,000-something soldiers who are poorly equipped and demoralized. Russia is current losing 3-to-1, and that’s in the most favorable read. They may be losing as much as 5-to-1. In the next 6 months, Russia will lose this war and will be ejected from Ukraine. However…
🇺🇦 Looking at the next ten years, Ukraine’s outlook isn’t as rosy. Ukraine isn’t going to destroy Moscow. Ukraine can keep Russia out of Ukraine, but it can’t stop Russia from being its neighbor. Ukraine won’t be doing any nation building in Russia. Putin will continue to desire Ukraine and Russia will remain resentful of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 This current fight has been going on for 8 years. If we’re to look at the next ten years, Russia has the benefit of a much larger population and (the possibility of) resources, with leadership that simply wants Ukraine.
🇺🇦 In fact, all Russia would have to do is build up troops on the border, and Ukraine would have to dedicate significant human capital just in case Russia invades.
🇺🇦 Russia may try various other methods of folding Ukraine under the Russian umbrella…be it their standard division tactics, slow encroachment of a proxy government, continued war at the border, assassinations, election interference, or even this obnoxious thing Russia does where they simply add a few meters to their border once a month. In any case, UA should prepare for a decades-long protracted war in order to keep Russia at the border once they’re pushed to the border. If the Russian economy collapses, or if there is significant regime change, then Ukraine would have an easier time sustaining its sovereignty
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
⚖️ My wife gives me daily Amber Heard SITREPs like I give you daily Ukraine SITREPs. Sorry to that one person who got angry at me for mentioning her here.