🇺🇦 (Pictured) Azovstal factory to Manhattan scale. For my European readers, Azovstal is bigger than Venice.
🇺🇦 Russian forces resumed air, artillery, and ground assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant following the conclusion of the May 2 evacuation efforts.
🇺🇦 Russian attacks in the Donbas region are being executed in a very cautious, but also tepid, manner. Sometimes they’re anemic attacks, as if they’re just doing it to check a box rather than to accomplish anything
🇺🇦 Two Russian raptor class warships have been destroyed by Bayraktar drones. The Black Sea fleet isn’t doing well
🇺🇦 The Russian tactic so far is to move into a small area, beat a small unit, then the Russians withdraw before a larger Russian counter offensive can take place.
🇺🇦 Russia is still plagued by logistical problems. They’re getting a noticeably high number of flat tires due to sun rot(?). Some tires have stamped on them “made in the USSR” making them 30-year old tires. However, they apparently prefer these over the Chinese tires they usually use, due to the bad fail rate.
🇺🇦 Ukraine received the new Ghost Phoenix drones made by the US, and 20 Ukrainians are now getting lessons (presumably Ukrainian instructors are getting the training)
🇺🇦 50 UA artillerymen are getting training (presumably instructors)
🇺🇦 70 of the 90 M777 howitzers have been turned over to the Ukrainians. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed this. These howitzers have a max range of about 25 miles, which means the war can now be brought to Russian stationary units.
🇺🇦 Russia is escalating aggressive language against Sweden as Sweden becomes closer to joining NATO.
🇺🇦 Ukrain set the record straight and stated that there is no ‘Ghost of Kyiv’.
🇺🇦 There is increased confidence that RU will announce full mobilization May 9.
🇺🇦 To clarify a prior bullet point, Russia celebrates Victory Day every year. Putin is big on anniversaries and wanted to also mark victory in Ukraine. He also wanted this victory for his 70th birthday because he’s into auspicious round numbers. So he wanted to go big and go huge for Victory Day, and was planning on a Ukraine victory accordingly.
🇺🇦 There were a significant number of missile attacks against Ukraine today. They’re all across Ukraine, including Lviv, which is the western-most city
🇺🇦 Part of Lviv is in a partial blackout. At least 4 sites hit.
🇺🇦 Israel is finally deciding to assist Ukraine. They are providing armor, humanitarian assistance, and most importantly, their ‘Iron Dome’ cyber security.
🇺🇦 Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs claims that Israel “supports neo-nazis in Kiev” due to Israel’s demand for an apology about Moscows Hitler remark 🙄
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!