Tuesday, November 15

Poland was hit by a Russian-made missile. UA Special Forces take the Kinburn Spit.

🇺🇦 A missile hit a grain facility in Przewodow, Poland, killing two people. Przewodow a village on the Polish/Ukraine border.

🇺🇦 Russia's defense ministry on Tuesday denied reports that Russian missiles had hit Polish territory, describing them as "a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation".

🇺🇦 I’m still waiting for confirmation on origins. This is likely a Russian overshoot of an attack on Kyiv

🇺🇦 The U.S. government is actively investigating.

🇺🇦 At the time of this posting, an investigation is still on-going. NATO won’t do this lightly when the stakes are so high and the end result has such large consequences

🇺🇦 Poland is raising military readiness across the country.

🇺🇦 The Polish president is communicating with the Biden admin

🇺🇦 Poland is considering whether to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty which calls for consultations if a member country feels its territorial integrity is threatened. They are not likely to invoke Article 5 over this.

🇺🇦 Article 4: All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member countries. Consultation between member states is therefore at the heart of NATO since Allies are able to exchange views and information, and discuss issues prior to reaching agreement and taking action.

🇺🇦 This missile strike on Poland territory is likely a result of Russia launching its largest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month on Tuesday – hours after Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky proposed a peace plan in front of world leaders at the G20 summit in Indonesia.

🇺🇦 The strikes targeted power infrastructure in several regions of the country, leaving more than seven million Ukrainians without power and the supply of electricity in a critical condition, according to senior Ukrainian officials.

🇺🇦 Out of more than 90 missiles fired by Russia, 73 were shot down. All of the 10 "Shahids" were shot down

🇺🇦 I’m going to have to start the daily updates again, aren’t I?

ℹ️ Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast, subplot

🇺🇦 The occupation of the Kinburn Spit allowed Russia to establish control over a significant area of the Black Sea area and block the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.

🇺🇦 Pictured: UA special forces crossed the Dniprovs'ka Gulf by speedboats in a waterborne assault to retake the Kinburn Spit. Under the cover of artillery and HIMARS, UA forces had a fierce clash with Russian forces, and retook the Spit.

🇺🇦 The UA Ministry of Defense posted videos of special forces crossing the Dnipro Bug estuary to assault the Kinburn Spit. While this is usually bad OPSEC, in UA’s case, these posts are likely all about psychological warfare. 

🇺🇦 To paint a picture, it was a bunch of rigid-hull inflatable boats full of special forces speeding towards land under the cover of smoke or fog, masked by artillery fire.

🇺🇦 The above event is full of conflicting data on what exactly what land was taken, so I’m only including what has been verified. This is one of those situations where “War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. “

🇺🇦 BBC has confirmed a successful assault on the Spit

ℹ️ Regular updates:

🇺🇦 There is video evidence that a Ukrainian sniper eliminated his opponent at a distance of 2.7 kilometers. This is the third longest confirmed kill by a sniper in action. The longest shot on record is by a Canadian sniper at a distance of 3,540 meters while performing a task in Iraq. The second longest shot is by  2,815m by Australian sniper.

🇺🇦 Russia lost 10,000 troops in two weeks. I can’t even wrap my head around that number.

🇺🇦 179 settlements have been de-occupied in southern Ukraine over past week

🇺🇦 Zelensky showed up in Kherson to celebrate with civilians and greet the troops. Lots of fanfare and national pride etc. I tell you that story to tell you…

🇺🇦 Russia is outraged that Zelensky went to “Russian territory” 

🇺🇦 …I annexed Moscow three weeks ago based on a lawful referendum in which 100% of my Transformer models, including Starscream, voted. Am I pissed off at Putin for coming to my territory? Yes, my friends, yes I am.

🇺🇦 Putin signed a decree allowing conscription of foreign nationals. All of the comments on the internet are joking about seeing Steven Seagal on the front lines.

🇺🇦 US: The US will not participate in any Ukraine negotiations without Ukraine

🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War: the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson in southeastern Ukraine "is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin's commitment and ability to deliver his war promises." ISW predicts that "the ever-increasing doubts among extreme Russian nationalists about Putin's commitment to Russian ideology reduce Putin's appeal to the nationalist community, while mobilization and high casualties will likely continue to upset members of Russian society."

🇺🇦 The war in Ukraine is fueling separatism in Russia's far region of Bashkortostan as violent attacks escalate. Bashkian Resistance: "The time for demonstrations and protest marches is over. From now on, Putin's henchmen can count on Molotov cocktails and bullets"

🇺🇦 Tensions between local Balrusians and the Russian military rising in Belarus. In Brest region of Belarus, where the newly arrived units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation are stationed, social tension is rising significantly.

🇺🇦 German energy reserves are now 100% full. 

🇺🇦 Israel struck a major airbases used by Iranian and Russian forces. 

🇺🇦 Going back to an earlier bullet…Ukrainian SOF are crossing the Dnipro in amphibious assault craft playing songs like “The Boys Are Back in Town”…like, how does Russian plan to fight people like that? 

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first. 

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…”  in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns 

⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale

⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!

⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. 

🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!

🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom