🇺🇦 The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group has deployed to Europe. This is the second carrier strike group to be deployed to Europe. It appears that the US is positioning itself for the possibility of additional Russian aggression.
🇺🇦 There is speculation that there will be a full mobilization in Russia by Spring. A furniture factory in Alma-Ata *allegedly* received an order from the Russian federation for 800,000 army beds. This is low confidence information
🇺🇦 It appears Musk has cut off 1,300 Starlink terminals from Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russia becomes No. 1 oil supplier of India. Record 946,000 barrels of Russian crude oil each day.
🇺🇦 All foreign car manufacturers have left Russia
🇺🇦 Britain has provided 9,000 winter kits to trained UA soldiers
🇺🇦 ‘We will be relentless’: top US Nazi hunter turns to Ukraine war crimes. Eli Rosenbaum, who spent much of the past 40 years leading the US government’s pursuit of Nazis, has been appointed as the head of the justice department’s War Crimes Accountability Team, set up in June to help bring war criminals to justice for atrocities in the Ukrainian conflict.
🇺🇦 [pictured] Data confirms that my amateur data analytics in the last post was correct: Russian troop deaths are accelerating. The first box is the Kherson counter offensive. The second box is mobilization.
🇺🇦 …for example, 570 Russian conscripts were deployed without equipment about 15km behind the Luhansk front line at Makiivka. All but 29 were instantly killed by shelling. (Multiple sources) Opinion: Russia, this is a waste of life, and every loss is a tragedy for your society.
🇺🇦 …there are a lot of really good Russian people out there, and it’s sad to see this happen to them, and hope they rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇦 Russian adopters of kidnapped Ukrainian children are complaining that the children hate Russians
🇺🇦 Locals from Kherson report that Russian forces have abandoned checkpoints in Chornobaivka, Stepanivka, Bilozerka and Korabelnyi district south of the Kosheva river.
🇺🇦 Locals from Kherson report that Russian forces have abandoned the main administrative building in Kherson
🇺🇦 Mobilized Russias are arriving to theater without weapons.
🇺🇦 After the Russian fleet was attacked in Sevastopol Bay, Russians left the ‘grain agreement’ which ensured the safe passage of Ukrainian grain out of the Black Sea. The idea was leaving the deal would threaten the grain. However, grain shipments continued, and Russia had no ability to threaten the grain, so they were forced to return to the ‘rain agreement’ just a few hours later…but with no guarantees for the safety of their fleet because they have no threat to bargain with
🇺🇦 Elon Musk removed the Kremlin’s blue verification check mark. I mean, it’s not very new worthy but I’m reporting it anyway!
🇺🇦 Underground resistance movements are discussing staging a civil war within Russia with the goal of eliminating Putin. This planning is verified though I rate the likelihood as small
🇺🇦 Russian officers are fleeing Kherson, but leaving their troops behind. By this, I mean most echelons of command have fled Kherson
🇺🇦 In more than one occasion, officers instructed conscripts to dig trenches and hold defensive positions, then fled the front
🇺🇦 An Iranian Colonel and an Iranian General responsible for providing Russia with drones have be assassinated. Iran blames Mossad. \
🇺🇸 Russia has activated its troll bot farms ahead of America’s midterm elections (NYTimes). I went on Twitter at noon on Sunday, and the top post was an account that was 3 hours old with 16 post
🇺🇸If a video makes you feel an emotion about a politician, especially if it’s anger, it’s helpful to google it. Get in this practice, because this is how you protect yourself and America from Russia’s MO
🇺🇸 While Russias attempts to help republicans are well publicized, less publicized is Russia leveraging democrats. Russia is leveraging anti-war sentiment to stoke anti-west sentiment within the left. Additionally, anything Russia can do to get the left and the right to hate each other will be exploited.
🇺🇸So again, if a meme or video makes you angry, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, be suspicious. I have both liberal and conservative friends who post Kremlin bot farm garbage without knowing it, and they refuse to believe that they’ve been manipulated
ℹ️ Mila Kunis is a national treasure subplot
🇺🇦 On March 6, I reported that Mila Kunis is from Ukraine, and that she is a national treasure. Since then Mila Kunis and her temporary(?) husband Ashton Kutcher have been working tirelessly to get aid to Ukraine. During their work, they found out a crucial bottleneck when getting aid to Ukraine: the aid exists, but it’s all sitting in pallets and not moving, because nobody knows how to get the aid to Ukraine. So they set up a logistics channel to get aid from the benefactors directly to the NGOs in Ukraine. To this end, all of the charity they collected went towards shipment and logistics, and they were able to get aid into Ukrainian hands. Godbelss these national treasures, Mila Kunis and whatshisname.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom