Tuesday, October 25
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Also: Dirty bombs, Kaliningrad, and NATO
🇺🇦 The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun — Institute for the Study of War confirms
🇺🇦 Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War: “The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty. “
🇺🇦 It is unknown whether Putin ordered the withdrawal. Officials have been asked, and nobody wants to answer
🇺🇦 Pictured: Kindergarteners in Russia are being shown military equipment and handed grenade launchers
🇺🇦 The notorious Russian propagandist, Semen "Wargonzo" Pegov, was wounded near Donetsk by the detonation of an anti-personnel mine placed by Russian forces.
🇺🇦 Federal prosecutors say sensitive U.S. military technology has been found in Russian weapons systems recovered in Ukraine. Prosecutors They've charged a group of Russians with illegally purchasing the technology through a network of shell companies and fake documentation.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities continued the mass forced removal of civilians from the west bank of the Dnipro River under the guise of civilian “evacuations.”
🇺🇦 Syria reports that an Israeli-linked strike destroyed an Iranian drone factory
🇺🇦 There are mass thefts of speed cameras from Sweden. They are the same cameras used in Russian drones (Canon DSRL), so there’s a theory that someone is stealing them and selling them to Russia.
🇺🇦 Gas prices in Europe are crashing down as Europe suddenly has more gas than it can use. A combination of unusually warm weather and successful bidding for cargoes means facilities are almost full before Europeans have even turned the thermostats up.
🇺🇦 I see multiple reports of mass abductions of Ukrainians—particularly children—from Kherson.
🇺🇦 New York Times: Using adoptions, Russia has turned children into spoils of war
🇺🇦 Russian media is imploring Russia to renew relations with Afghanistan in order to acquire US made equipment left behind there.
🇺🇦 Ukraine liberated 88 settlements in Kherson region, 551 in Kharkiv region (timestamp: Oct 21, 7:00pm EST)
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Armed Forces are shooting down 85% of Iranian-made Shahed drones
🇺🇦 Wagner Group mercenaries tested Ukrainian armor plating, and were visibly perplexed that none of their bullets penetrated the armor, even at close range. “How can this be?” Opinion: I mean, this is news to me, but apparently an AK47 can’t penetrate western body armor?
🇺🇦 Russia has conscripted more than 20,000 prisoners to fight in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russia opened a vast morgue in Mariupol due to extreme losses. 7,000 square meters.
🇺🇦 Unconfirmed reports that Russians are starting to abandon their positions near the Inhulets River.
🇺🇦 Russian troops in Kherson Oblast are retreating across the Dnipro River in civilian clothes
🇺🇦 Putin is demonstrably setting conditions for Russia to continue a protracted war in Ukraine, not for a negotiated settlement or offramp (ISW)
🇺🇦 While Israel is not sending arms to Ukraine, they are providing intelligence. This intelligence lead to the downing of Iranian drones
🇺🇦 Some Russians drafted to fight in Ukraine say nobody is in charge and they don't know what they're doing there
🇺🇦 Russian private news outlet Mediazone tried to calculate the number of conscripts by looking at wedding statistics. In Russia, a person who has received a conscription notice can get married without waiting a month, as they usually would. Marriages increased sharply after the announcement of Putin’s conscription campaign. By this metric, Mediazone estimates 500,000 men have been conscripted
🇺🇦 It appears that 0.5% of Russia’s population—all men—have left Russia in the past 3 weeks; this is either via conscription or fleeing. That’s an insane population loss
🇺🇦 Speaking of the above, Russia’s demographics are so bad that Russia pays people benefits if they get married. "Some local girls married one VDV guy after another, because they're dying quickly enough that you can get several compensations in a few months. It’s a combination of two factors: poverty, and lots of troops dying very, very quickly."
ℹ️ US Politics subplot
🐘 Two coalitions are forming in the Republican Party (US politics). Mitch McConnell has led Republican support for sending aid to Ukraine. Kevin McCarthy, who would likely become speaker if Republicans win control of the House, is against more aid
🐎 Something similar is happening to democrats…Progressive Democrats sent the White House a letter urging it to seriously explore “all possible avenues” to end the war, “including direct (diplomatic) engagement with Russia”.
🐎 The above caused fierce backlash from other Democratic lawmakers. “This letter is an olive branch to a war criminal who’s losing his war,” tweeted Congressman Jake Auchincloss. Progressive Democrats have since withdrawn their letter.
🐘🐎 No matter which party affiliation you are, take note that some of each party are helping Putin either indirectly or directly, and that your vote and voice matters. Voting ends Tuesday November 8
ℹ️ Dirty bomb subplot
🇺🇦 Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu held a second call with U.S. defense secretary in three days. He held a flurry of calls with three other counterparts in NATO countries. In these calls, he told his French, Turkish and British counterparts of Moscow's concern that Ukraine could detonate a "dirty bomb”.
🇺🇦 Russia’s information space is laying the pretext to use a dirty bomb in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia’s messaging appears to be two fold: 1) Ukraine is going to detonate a dirty bomb, which means we should escalate 2) Ukraine is going to detonate a dirty bomb, and blame Russia
🇺🇦 The US, France, and Britain issued a joint statement rejecting Russia’s false pretext for escalation.
🇺🇦 Russian forces "preparing to work under radioactive contamination" - Moscow
🇺🇦 Russia's Defence Ministry said that it had prepared its forces to work in conditions of radioactive contamination.
🇺🇦 The Institute for the Study of War believes that Shoigu's statements about the alleged "dirty bomb" in Ukraine are aimed at splitting NATO
ℹ️ Kaliningrad
🇺🇦 For those not familiar, Kaliningrad is a Russian territory in east Germany. It is like a Russian island in Europe.
🇺🇦 Russia has switched the airport in Kaliningrad to “open sky mode.” This means anyone can fly to this Russian state.
🇺🇦 This seems to be done as a weapon against Europe. It appears that Russia is trying to trigger a mass migration.
🇺🇦 If they can trigger a mass migration, they can pull a 2015-style refugee-based division in Europe and get everyone to hate each other again.
ℹ️ NATO subplot
🇺🇦 NATO Is strengthening is presence on the eastern flank
🇺🇦 NATO is setting up four new battle groups in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia
🇺🇦 These battle groups will contain some thing like 30,000 troops
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
I miss you!