Tuesday, October 4

Ukraine has broken through the northern front in Kherson, and is advancing from all directions

🇺🇦 Pictured: Russian defenses east of Inhulets River have collapsed and Ukrainian army is advancing into northern Kherson from all directions

🇺🇦 Russian soldiers post on Telegram about their retreat in Kherson: “We aren’t just moving back. We are retreating, I can’t even find a word for it. This is an escape… There is nowhere to run.  Antonovsky bridge is completely destroyed.”

ℹ️ More Operations:

🇺🇦 Ukraine has also now liberated Lyman’s neighboring settlements. This gives UA a foothold in Donetsk Oblast bordering Luhansk.

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s counteroffensive also appears to be progressing in Kharkiv Oblast, with emerging reports of newly liberated settlements on the eastern side of the Oskil River.

🇺🇦 UA forces are pushing on from Lyman to Luhansk

🇺🇦 If it wasn’t known before, UA has full control of Lyman. 

🇺🇦 Wall Street Journal, quoting western officials: Ukraine's rapid advance into Russian-held areas is outpacing Russia’s efforts to expedite training for newly mobilized troops to reinforce its campaign: “There is virtually nothing Russia can do that can make a difference"

🇺🇦 12 hours after Putin declared Lyman part of Russia, Russian forces fled Lyman

🇺🇦 100 hours after Putin declared Kherson part of Russia, Russian forces are in a full retreat on Kherson’s front.

🇺🇦 Russia’s 3rd Army Corps has collapsed and cannot perform given tasks

🇺🇦 The 3rd Army Corps was formed in June for Ukraine

ℹ️ Regular updates:

🇺🇦 Pictured: According to the Pentagon, Iranian drones used in Ukraine are using hobby-grade parts and use parts that “you can just by off the shelf”

🇺🇦Ukraine pushed ahead with its counteroffensive today, reclaiming control over settlements in the country’s east and south. 

🇺🇦Watching all of these videos of the Ukrainian Army liberating towns and getting welcomed back is like watching videos of US soldiers returning to their kids. If you need an emotional pick-me-up today, search for those videos.

🇺🇦 Speaking of videos, I keep seeing all these videos of Ukrainian soldiers TikTok-dancing their way into liberated cities. Like…how do you fight an army with that kind of moral?

🇺🇦 Based on the body count, it appears that the Russian retreat from Lyman was a complete disaster.

🇺🇦 Before Lyman collapsed, Ukrainian loudspeakers demanded that Russians surrender. "Your government doesn't need you. For them, you are cannon fodder. Your loved ones need you at home." That is some WWII-level psyops propaganda right there

🇺🇦 A few days ago the Biden admin used the ‘red phone’ to warn Russia of ‘catastrophic consequences’ if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Nobody knows what was said on the call, but it prompted Russia to start calling for the US to cool down 

🇺🇦 Zelensky has canceled Ukraine’s regular autumn conscription, and has canceled the demobilization scheduled for October-December

🇺🇦 By the time I post this, Russia will have lost 60,000 troops in Ukraine. 

🇺🇦…Russia has also lost 2,354 tanks, 4,949 armored fighting vehicles, 3,786 vehicles and fuel tanks, 1,397 artillery systems, 336 multiple launch rocket systems, 176 air defense systems, 264 airplanes, 226 helicopters, 1,009 drones, and 15 boats.

🇺🇦I learned today that when when East-Germany collapsed and Putin was forced to return home to Leningrad, the only item he brought from East-Germany was a washing machine. I triple checked this and it appears to be a fact

🇺🇦Russian TV propagandists are starting to face reality. "I don’t remember a precedent in world history when territories we don’t even control were absorbed into the country"

🇺🇦Russian war ships were observed near the Nord Stream pipeline before the explosion

🇺🇦…That alone isn’t evidence that Russia did it. In fact, explosives could have been planted on the pipeline months or even years ago

🇺🇦The European Commission on Thursday took Malta to the European Union's highest court over its "golden passport" scheme that allows wealthy investors to buy Maltese – and therefore EU – citizenship, without having to live in the country.

🇺🇦 A nuclear weapons convoy was spotted heading to Ukraine. A train operated by secretive nuclear division spotted in central Russia heading towards the front line in Ukraine. Media is speculating that Putin is sending ‘signal to the West’, and I’m over here with the Opinion: I’m still not worried about Russia’s nukes at all. With the number of videos I’ve seen with missiles returning to the launch pad, I don’t have any faith in Russia’s nukes.

🇺🇦 Russia has stolen $530m+ worth of grain from Ukraine. I hope it was worth it, Russia.

ℹ️ Elon Musk subplot:

🇺🇦 Elon Musk tweeted some garbage that forecasted that 1) if the elections were redone with UN supervision, that Russia would leave if it were the will of the people 2) Crimea should formally be part of Russia 3) Ukraine will remain neutral on the world stage. 

🇺🇦 After everyone started yelling at him, he said this would be the likely outcome in the end, it’s just a question of how many people died before then. 

🇺🇦 …every single thing I’ve read conflicts completely with the above. Like, read the room man, none of what you said makes sense.

🇺🇦 The Kremlin praised Elon Musk for his views of how peace can be achieved

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first. 

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…”  in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns 

⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale

⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!

⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. 

🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!

🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom