Ukraine - Friday, April 29

Russia's downed UA drone pictures are the same drone being dragged to different places

🇺🇦  It has been 8 days since Putin declared victory in Mariupol. Fighting at the Azovstal plant is still happening. There is RENEWED fighting at the main port. Mariupol has not fallen.

🇺🇦 Russia planned to do a tour of Mariupol with Russian-friendly journalists yesterday, but it was canceled because of the fighting.

🇺🇦 Russia fired 5 cruise missiles into Kyiv. This was done because the UN Secretary General, and the Prime Minister of Bulgaria were in the city. They were holding a press conference at the time of the attack.

🇺🇦 Earlier, India said they would take Russian oil. One problem: nobody wants to ship it to them

🇺🇦 Russia claims it shot down two Bayraktar drones in the past 24 hours, and showed pictures. OSINT observers noticed that it’s the same drone shot down a month ago being dragged to different places.

🇺🇦 Slovak Prime Minster said recently that he could transfer Slovakia's MiG-29s to Ukraine if its allies will protect Slovakia's skies until it receives its F-16s in 2024. Visiting Slovakia today, Polish Defense Minister confirmed that Poland's F-16 will start patrolling Slovakia's airspace. 

Donbas (Eastern Ukraine encirclement campaign):

🇺🇦  Russian and Chechen forces launched a major offensive in Rubizhne; they were beaten back and lost territory.(Pictured)

🇺🇦 Russia made no progress in the Severodonetsk area (western part of the ‘encirclement’ campaign in eastern Ukraine), though Ukraine is taking heavy losses. 

🇺🇦 There are three columns of coordinated Russian advancement in Izyum. Izyum is the northern most conflict area in the ‘encirclement’ campaign in eastern Ukraine. Russia gained 20km of territory in the past few days. Ukraine is taking heavy losses, though they were able to stop the Russian advancement.(Pictured)

🇺🇦 UA special forces, possibly aided by insurgents, destroyed a key railroad bridge south of Melitopol. Melitopol is southern Ukraine, in occupied areas near the Sea of Azov. This has stopped rail traffic and Russian resupply from occupied Crimea to the Donbas.

🇺🇦 Along the southern Donbas front, Ukraine has dug in—literally—and is engaging in trench warfare. This has been very effective in stopping the Russian advancement. (Pictured)

🇺🇦 Opinion of military expert Dr Mike Martin, a war studies visiting fellow at King's College London. Russia's assault on Donbas has "sort of fizzled" and the battle for the region will be over in two to four weeks. "Basically the Russians are going run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack."

🇺🇦 Dr Mike Martin: The Russians have squandered their one chance to take the region. "They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the east," he explains.

🇺🇦 I don’t think Russia has functioning nuclear weapons. I’ll talk more about this next week.

Kharkiv (North-East Ukraine):

🇺🇦 Russian forces are being pushed back along two points of contact. This is providing relief to the city as Russia is moving back past the artillery range.

🇺🇦 Intense fighting in Ruska Lozova, which is about 20km north of Kharkiv.

Addendum: 

🇺🇸🇪🇺Yesterday I complained about Europe purchasing Russian oil. But let me say that Europe has always rushed to America’s defense, and America will always rush to Europe’s defense, and we’re certainly partners and a team when it comes to helping Ukraine, even if there are set backs. 

🇺🇦 This conflict is creating a situation in which Ukraine is integrated into NATO weapons and equipment, which is the exact thing Russia was trying to avoid 

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…

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