Ukraine - Monday, April 25
Lots of fires are suddenly erupting inside of Russia. Resistance is the story of the day.
🇺🇦 Explosions happened in the breakaway territory of Transnistria in Moldova where Russian troops are being held. Cause unknown. Looks like Moldova took the warnings to hear
🇺🇦 Multiple major explosions happened inside Bryansk, Russia. At least one of the explosions was at a major Russian oil depot.
🇺🇦 There have been a whole bunch of fires and explosions in Russia. It’s fairly certain it’s homegrown or domestic origin.
🇺🇦 Russia didn’t think this through: They went to war with Ukraine, and are spreading anti-Ukrainian propaganda. Then they kidnapped 500,000 Ukrainians, and brought them to Russia to fix their demographics crisis. Ukrainians don’t want to be there. Russians don’t want them to be there.
🇺🇦 Based on the way we see Russia conducting themselves, we can make the assumption that Russia doesn’t have a lot of positive control on the Ukrainians they’re bringing into the country. Russia may have through that if they just brought people into Russia, they’d assimilate. It’s as misguided as thinking Russian soldiers would be welcome into Ukraine with flowers. (Some military planners seem to think it’s these Ukrainians that are causing the fires, but I doubt it)
🇺🇦 Russian state TV suggested opening a market where Russians can buy belligerent Ukrainians for $3 (three rubles) and be allowed to do whatever they wanted to those Ukrainians
🇺🇦 Russia has ordered all publishers to eliminate the word “Ukraine” from textbooks
🇺🇦 EU will have a full embargo on Russian oil by the end of the year. The embargo will start in a few weeks, but it may take the rest of the year for some countries to end their reliance on Russian oil
🇺🇦 UA sources reporting that Russian forces are planning a renewed assault on the Asovstal factory in Mariupol. This will likely be very costly for Russia, however, Russia is under pressure by the Kremlin to get results by May 9.
🇺🇦 Additional Russian forces are deploying to support unsuccessful attacks in Izyum
🇺🇦 UA civilians in Kharkiv are organizing resistance to Russia’s occupation which plans to install a Russian-friendly local government.
🇺🇦 US Sec of State and US Defense Sec met with Zelensky in Kyiv.
🇺🇦 Ahead of the meeting, Zelensky said the Americans "should not come here with empty hands,” and that he is “expecting specific things.” Like…come on, America has literally given you a third of your entire military in the past two months, and is supplying you with real time intelligence, so demanding generosity isn’t a good overture. This is likely just a simple difference in culture, but still. Come on.
🇺🇦 …That said, UA prime minister, Denys Shmyhal was very gracious prior to the meeting, and said this was a significant show of solidarity.
🇺🇦 …Also, after the meeting, Zelensky was overflowing the praise and gratitude.
🇺🇦 Two dozen Russian ships and submarines remain in the Black Sea.
🇺🇦 Austria’s foreign minister pushed back on UA EU membership. Joining the EU requires unanimous agreement between all members.
🇺🇦 One of the largest motivations Ukraine has against Russia is that they’ve seen Putin go into other countries, and effectively use those countries for labor. Not like slave labor, but labor-class labor. They see the prosperity the West has to offer by comparison, and it’s no contest.
📙“Ruscism” or “Russism” is a new term people are using, which is combination of “Russia” and “fascism.”
📙“Orcs” is a derogatory term that Ukrainians gave Russian soldiers. This literally means Lord of the Rings orcs, which are depicted as mindless, disgusting brutes.
📙“Ghost camps” are these elaborate temporary camping structures that Russian soldiers built to house them in the forest while occupying Ukraine, but were then hastily abandoned.
🙋This war just passed the two-month mark. We’ve come a long way since since we all thought it’d be over in 4 days. Looking back, there are these little things that happened that likely altered the course of the entire war. For example, that video of the lady giving a Russian soldier sunflower seeds may have been enough to motivate the resistance. The Ghost of Kyiv myth may have been enough to show that it was possible to resist. While small acts, these types of events and stories may have caused a cascading series of events such as…
🙋It’s possible that a dozen Belarus saboteurs who targeted railways changed the course of the war. As mentioned yesterday, Russia relied on this resupply line, and the sudden lack of resupply meant that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers had no supplies. These acts of sabotage encouraged others in Belarus to leak intel about Russian actions. As an aside, 11 alleged saboteurs are in custody.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that’s still the case, that poses a problem when…
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Thanks Walter for all you do! Please stay safe out there!
Thank you for the excellent reporting. Best place i have found to keep up with events in UA.