Ukraine - Saturday, April 16
Ukraine soldiers get training, and KIA generals gets its own subsection
🇺🇦 Forces continue to grind down Ukrainian defense in Mariupol. Russia is deploying more artillery. Ukraine is trying to figure out a way to conduct a rescue operation, or break the lines.
🇺🇦 For the first time, Russia used a long range Tu-22M3 b0mber to b0mb Ukraine
🇺🇦 There have been no movements of nuclear weapons to date
🇺🇦 5 million refugees
🇺🇦 Russia may formally declare war. This will serve the function of enacting a full-country mobilization, including a draft. This, of course, is the most dumbass thing they can do in a long line of dumbs things they’ve done. The majority of fighters are already inexperienced conscripts, and putting them along with a bunch of untrained draftees isn’t going to help anything. They don’t have the logistics to supply what they have, and it’ll be even worse if they have three times the number of people there to feed.
🇺🇦 British SAS troops ‘are training local forces in Ukraine’
🇺🇦 American troops are giving a crash course for small units of the Ukrainian military to help them operate the next delivery of battlefield weapons from the US and pre-positioned stocks in Germany. This is happening about 100 miles away from Ukraine, in Poland
🇺🇦 The U.S. Department of Defense is sending robotic ships to Ukraine to aid its fight against Russia. While the Pentagon is being tight-lipped about the vessels and what missions they’ll be performing, analysts gave FedScoop some insights into what the systems might be and what role they might play in the war. (Fedscoop)
🇺🇦 Bill Browder: "You think you can apply political science to Russia. You need to apply criminal science. You need to be a criminologist to understand Russia. People don't go into government to serve the country. They go into government to steal money." Russia is a mafia state.
🇩🇪 Germany is back in the game: Scholz: more than one billion euros of military aid to Ukraine to buy whatever weapons they want - Should they buy weapons from Germany, the export would have to be approved by Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck. The German Finance minister confirmed
🇺🇦 The FSB has asked the government for a 17% increase in military spending to help with the burials of dead soldiers.
Operations:
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks Izyum and Severodonetsk; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses.
🇺🇦 The assault on Mariupol is progressing so slowly because AzovStal plant, one of the last remaining defensive Ukr positions, is the size of a city with underground tunnels and buildings that can withstand bombings and “even nuclear strike”. This is according to Yan Gagin, an advisor in the breakaway province of Donetsk.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense units destroy four cruise missiles over Lviv Region
Generals (yes this has its own subsection):
🇺🇦 Russia has lost another general: Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov. I’ve lost count on how many generals this is. There have been so many high ranking officers KIA/MIA that it’s hard to make a distinction.
🇺🇦 Here are the full generals KIA/WIA list, to the best of my knowledge:
Lieutenant General Yakov Vladimirovich Rezantsev, Commander, 49th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District (killed Mar 24)
Lieutenant General Aleksandr Semyonovich Sanchik, Commander, 35th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District (wounded, Mar 2. Returned to duty. Now leading the withdrawal from Kyiv)
Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander, 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District (killed Feb 28)
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Chief of Staff , 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District (killed Mar 8)
Major General Andrei Kolesnikov, Commander, 29th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District (killed Mar 11)
Major General Oleg Mitayev, Commander, 150th Motorized Division (Novocherkassk) (killed Mar 15)
Major General Sergei Nyrkov, Chief of Staff, 36th Combined Arms Army (Ulan-Ude) (seriously wounded Mar 2)
Major General Andriy Seritsky, Deputy Commander, 36th Combined Arms Army (Ulan-Ude) (seriously wounded, Mar)
Chechen general Magomed Tushayev, Commander, 141st Rosgvardiya Chechen Guard (disputed Mar 1)
Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov (this is the latest, mentioned above)
🇺🇦 Arrested / MIA generals:
Army General Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, Defense Minister (missing since Mar 11) (reportedly having induced heart attack)
Army General Alexander Vasilyevich Bornikov, Director, FSB (missing since Mar 24)
Admiral Igor Olegovich Kostyukov, Director, GRU (missing since Mar)
Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Osipov, Commander, Black Sea Fleet (arrested, Apr 15)
Colonel General Sergey Orestovich Beseda, Director, 5th Department, Office of Operational Information and International Relations, FSB (arrested, Mar 11)
Lieutenant General Roman Garvilov, Deputy Director, Rosgvardiya (arrested, Mar 17)
Lieutenant General Vladislav Nikolayevich Yershov, Commander, 6th Combined Arms Army (dismissed and arrested, Mar 22)
Lieutenant General Sergey Aleksandrovich Kisel, Commander, 1st Guards Tank Army (dismissed and arrested, Mar)
Lieutenant General Mikhail Stepanovich Zusko, Commander, 58th Combined Arms Army (Vladikavkaz), Southern Military District (dismissed and arrested, Mar)
Anatoly Bolyukh (Lt. Gen equivalent), Deputy Director, 5th Department, Office of Operational Information and International Relations, FSB (arrested, Mar 11)
Moskva:
🇺🇦 Out of the crew of 500, it is rumored that only 54 survived. However, there is only photographic evidence that 14 go out
🇺🇦 From incident to rollover was only 90 minutes
🇺🇦 (pictured) Satellite images show the Moskva completely engulfed in flame. This graphic also shows the location where it happened. (Thanks to Naval News)
🇺🇦 Opinion: There’s no way Russia will take Odessa now.
⚠️If anyone cares, I post updates in the afternoon, then immediately start writing the next update. That means some of the data is 24 hours old, some of it is minutes old.
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research and my own opinion.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that’s still the case, that poses a problem when…
⚠️ I started a substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!