📷 (Pictured) important Ukrainian study
🇺🇦 Russian reinforcements drawn from troops that had fought around Kyiv have appeared in eastern Ukraine. Those reinforcements have not received sufficient time to recover physically or mentally from their losses and defeat around Kyiv and are unlikely to generate combat power proportionate to their numbers.
🇺🇦 More weapons from the US are arriving on the border to Ukraine today. The US is dropping it off at the border, and it is up to Ukraine after that. This goes hand-in-hand with the training the US is giving Ukraine on these weapons, about 100 miles into Polish borders.
🇺🇦 Mariupol has come down to defending the Azovstal metallurgical plant. It’s a massive city-sized plant. There are an estimated 2,500 soldiers still left there.
🇺🇦 Wali the sniper is still alive and fighting. He’s in the Kyiv region. He uses a Sako TRG-42 rifle, which means he’s shooting from more than a mile away, and by the time the bullet gets to the target, it’s common to be subsonic, so the target doesn’t even know they’re being shot at, which means he can take multiple shots.
🇺🇦 I just realized that Russia’s flag ship was destroyed by a country with no Navy.
🇺🇦 I just learned that America’s flag ship is the USS Constitution. USS Constitution is the oldest commissioned ship in the United States Navy. The USS Constitution was built in 1794. Naval officers and crew still serve aboard her today.
🇺🇦 Russia says that the US is moving their bio labs out of Ukraine and into Mongolia ( 🥴 ). So heads up Mongolia, last time they said that, they conducted a special military operation in your country.
🇺🇦 Italy is closing all of its ports to all Russian ships
🇺🇦 Russian looters are being looted by the Russian post office. Russian looters will have to file complaints with the post office because their looted stuff was looted from them. It’s criminals all the way down
🇺🇦 An intercepted communication suggests that Russia b0med it’s own town in Klimovo in order to spark outrage. "These are our heroes," the Russian soldier said to his wife. When his wife asked "why" Moscow would do such a thing, he responds, by saying it is "necessary" and "is done in order to provoke" Ukrainians. The Security Service of Ukraine published the audio, but at the time of this writing, the audio hasn’t been independently verified.
🇺🇦 Ukraine Air Force Command: "On April 16, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force and the Joint Forces Operation forces hit 13 air targets of the Russian occupiers: a warplane, a helicopter, five unmanned aerial vehicles, and six cruise missiles”. A Ukraine Su-24 was also shot down
We may be entering an attrition phase:
🇺🇦 Russia doesn’t have the demographics for war. The 1990s collapse in birth rates still impacts Russia today. Russia’s population once again began to contract in 2019. It will continue to do so well into the foreseeable future. In fact, most developed countries have this problem — China has the largest crisis due to the one child policy. Europe has this problem as well. America is one of the few that doesn’t, due to robust immigration.
🇺🇦 Russian proxies are running out of troops so they are conscripting 16 and 17 year olds
🇺🇦 Much of Russia’s war production has mostly been halted due to sanctions.
🇺🇦 US authorities are concerned that ammunition of the Ukrainian army is rapidly depleting, especially artillery shells, and therefore they are accelerating supply of arms aid.
🇺🇦 "For perspective: 500 Javelins will cover three to five days of fighting. 18 howitzers will account for maybe 3% of deployed field artillery. That many or more get lost in a week. The rate of assistance is a fraction of the rate of depletion."
⚠️If anyone cares, I post updates in the afternoon, then immediately start writing the next update. That means some of the data is 24 hours old, some of it is minutes old.
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research and my own opinion.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that’s still the case, that poses a problem when…
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