Ukraine - Thursday, April 7
Theater-wide operational pause, spies, and the insane losses Russia has taken.
Thursday, April 7
🇺🇦 Russia’s sent their elite units to fight during this first phase of the attack: The 1st Battalion Tactical Group, the 331st Parachute Regiment, 7th Airborne Division and the Spetznas of the 41st Army just to name a few. These were the best units Russia had. And they lost. They lost in Kyiv, they lost in Sumy, they lost in Chernihiv. I’m pretty sure Russia doesn’t have the operational cohesion to occupy Donbas after eating it in the north.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s top prosecutor was detained yesterday, after it was discovered he was passing Ukrainian secrets to Russia in exchange for special treatment in a Russia-occupied Ukraine. He was passing information such as daily passwords, target locations, and locations of Russian POWs.
🇺🇦 America has identified the Russian soldiers responsible for the Bucha massacre. If anyone questioned the ability of America’s intelligence, here’s your proof.
🇺🇦 Pre-Edit: hours after I wrote the last bullet, it looks like Ukrainian Intelligence decided to unmask the person responsible. A 40-something Russian lieutenant colonel named Azatbek Omurbekov has been outed as the “Butcher of Bucha”, the commander who allegedly ordered his troops to commit utterly inhumane war crimes in Bucha
🇺🇦 Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine has asked those living in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv, to evacuate immediately. An oncoming Russian attack will likely cut off all escape routes in the coming days.
🇺🇦 NATO’s chief just warned that this war can last for years. There’s no sign that Putin has given up on his intent to rule all of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s foreign minister said Ukraine expects a large scale conflict for the “Battle of Donbas” involving thousands of tanks/planes/artillery
🇺🇦 The UN suspended Russia from the Human Rights Council
🇺🇦 In an intercepted call, Russian soldier described children safaris. That’s all you need to know to know that Russian soldiers need to be prosecuted for war crimes
🇺🇦 Before anyone says “but America”, I need to remind everyone that America doesn’t fuck around when it comes to warcrimes. America prosecutes its own, aggressively, when its soldiers commit war crimes. There are American soldiers in Ft. Leavenworth right now for committing warcrimes.
🇺🇦 Ukrainians are using “find my phone” to map the Russian retreat in real time, because Russia looted a bunch of Apple devices
🇺🇦 I read an interesting opinion. Russia’s real losses may be greater than even we believe. Oryx (a repeatedly-cited authority in this situation) has cataloged 2400 major pieces of military equipment being lost. This is *confirmed* losses and is considered the minimum number. “Evidence of the last few days shows us just how badly these values can undershoot the truth.” Ukraine’s military is recording 200 more tanks and TEN TIMES MORE aircraft. “If Russian losses in other areas are any any way equivalent to those around Kyiv, then the numbers from the Ukrainian ministry of defense might actually be conservative.” (Journalist Mark Summer, citing: Oryx, UA Defense Ministry, and professor Phillips O’Brien)
🇺🇦 Russia calls the reduction of embassy staff “extremely unfriendly”. Womp womp.
🇺🇦 Turkey allegedly sent 16 more Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine. (Seeking additional confirmation of this)
🇺🇦 US is sending Puma 5-hour loitering drones to Ukraine. These drones are meant for battlefield command and control (C2) as well as artillery spotting
🇺🇦 Yesterday I mentioned that Ukrainians are being trained by the US. They are specifically being trained on how to use new attack drones. I don’t know if this is related to the last bullet. Training takes about two days
🇺🇦 Anonymous, the unstructured hacking group, allegedly gained access to Kremlin CCTV and posted images of internal meetings. Opinion: first, maybe don’t give away your hand like this, and second, if Anonymous got in there, that means the US has already been doing it. It’s no wonder we know exactly what Putin intends to do, all the time
🇺🇦 6,883 explosive devices have been disarmed in Kyiv after Russia left
🇺🇦 Russia started a disinformation campaign, saying there would soon be a false flag chemical attack would happen in Kharkiv soon
🇺🇦 Conscripts are so ill-equipped that they are using decades-old rifles and drinking pond water.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s foreign minister said Ukraine expects a large scale conflict for the “Battle of Donbas” involving thousands of tanks/planes/artillery
Operations:
🇺🇦 There is a theater-wide operational pause. There is still shelling going on in places like Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, but all offensive operations have paused.
🇺🇦 Russia has given up 45% of the area it occupied
🇺🇦 In eastern Ukraine, Russia is sending reconnaissance forces to try to probe the line in Donetsk. Donestk is the eastern-most part of Ukraine
🇺🇦 Q: With Russia on the run, why isn’t Zelensky re-taking Crimea and Donbas? A: During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russia had nuclear warheads in Cuba. They were ordered to fire if attacked. Kennedy didn’t know Russia had warheads there, he just knew they had nuclear-capable missiles. Kennedy was pressured to attack. He declined to attack. Instead, Kennedy created a quarantine and blockade to show our strength, then gave Russia an out to save face. Russia realize they had f’ed up and backed down. And that’s why we’re all still here today. Today, people (me included) see two options: a defeated Ukraine, or a defeated Russia. Zelensky sees a third diplomatic option, just like Kennedy did. That’s why he’s offering compromise. I get it, but it’s so gd infuriating!
🇺🇦 Russia has 30,000 troops in Eastern Ukraine. They have tens of thousands of troops being redeployed. It will take weeks to redeploy. There’s no indication that Russia is using new troops beyond those already in theater.
⚠️ Thanks for today’s image, Michael G
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
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