🇺🇦 The Ukrainian presidential advisor verified that in Mariupol, the 36th Marine Brigade broke through Russian lines and joined the Azov Regiment. They were even able to retrieve the wounded. More on this later
🇺🇦 There is heavy evidence that Ukraine special forces are operating inside of Russia, blowing up key critical infrastructure related to the war effort—bridges, fuel depots, railways, boats, etc. Journalists are speculating, but Ukraine hasn’t commented. (Newsweek, Guardian, and more)
🇺🇦 There has been no change, nor any activity, with Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Despite Putin saying the nuclear arsenal has been put on high alert (or whatever the language was), nothing has changed. Apparently this is a big conversation in the military-intelligence-world
🇺🇦 Russia is forcing business to give part of their income in exchange for work permits. Russia is a criminal enterprise
🇺🇦 Moscow says the war is going according to plan.
🇺🇦 The US has approved the transfer of MiGs from Slovakia to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Poland acknowledge that they mysteriously lost 100 soviet-era tanks. Where could they possibly be? 🤷
🇺🇦 Viktor Medvedchuk, the guy I posted about yesterday, was a close friend of Putin, and was supposed to be the pro-Kremline puppet leader of Ukraine once Russia took over. So that’s the context on that.
🇺🇦 Pentagon is meeting with top weapons makers to discuss the capacity needs to assist Ukraine as well as resupply partners and allies
Boeing, L3 Harris, Ratheyon, Lockheed Martin, Huntington Engles, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman
🇺🇦 Russia is passing a bill that prevents comparing them to the USSR or Nazi Gremany. Lol
🇺🇦 1 in 5 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine are high ranking
🇺🇦 Twitter users are exposing the extreme nationalism and pro-Russian / anti-west sentiment in China, and Beijing is not happy about it.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is storing thousands of Russian bodies in mortuary refrigerators because Russia doesn’t want to take them
🇺🇦 Ukraine refugees in their host countries are cleaning up parks and streets as a gesture of good will and thanks.
🇺🇦 Q: how did Russia’s ruble rebound to pre-sanction levels? A: Russia is restricting the sale of the ruble while forcing purchase of the ruble, thereby artificially inflating the value.
🇺🇦 Marine Le Pen is campaigning on France leaving NATO
🇺🇦 Intercepted conversations with Russian soldiers shows shock at the resistance they’re receiving
🇺🇦 “Big-G” genocide is a term that isn’t taken lightly when world leaders say ig. So yes, there’s drama when Macron doesn’t say it, or when Biden does say it. You and I can say “genocide” all day long, but it’s different when world leaders say it. Additionally, my personal opinion is that what is happening in Ukraine does in fact meet the criteria for genocide.
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of war is one of my new favorite sources
Operations:
🇺🇦 Russia continues limited offensive operation in Eastern Ukraine as it reconstitutes
🇺🇦 Some small battles in Izyum, which is mostly Russia probing weaknesses.
🇺🇦 A lot of military experts say there will be a smaller double-envelopment coming from Mariupol+Izium once Russia takes Mariupol, in order to take all of Donestsk and the area just west of it. That would give Russia a large chunk of Eastern Ukraine.
🇺🇦 However, the Russians are working to reconstitute forces that left Kyiv, and they are struggling to establish necessary logistical bases in order to launch new offensives.
🇺🇦 Small scale fighting. Ukraine conducted heavy counter offensives in the Zaporizhia region to try to launch into Mariupol, and reinforce, resupply, or retake. (This is what those fighters of the 36th Marine Brigade stuck in Mariupol were hoping would happen sooner than later…this is why they were fighting so hard, because any second could be the moment when Ukrainians forces came from Zaporizhia, and they knew it). Counter offensives in Zaporizhia are also designed to try to reinforce Kherson.
🇺🇦 US to send MI17 helicopters and armored humvees to Ukraine
Mariupol (second map):
🇺🇦 Last night, I posted that Mariupol would fall. After I posted that….
🇺🇦 An assessment from US DOD came out saying Mariupol is still contested.
🇺🇦 It appears that every inch that Russia takes in Mariupol makes it exponentially harder for Russia to take it.
🇺🇦 Going forward, US DOD thinks that Mariupol will be taken, but it’s still incredible that it hasn’t been.
🇺🇦 Russia is still struggling with awful moral. They’re not getting paid.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian GUR claims that Russian troops are refusing to participate in fighting due to the number of bodies returning to Russia from Ukraine and that the Russian military is shipping bodies in smaller batches to avoid causing panic in local communities.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to regroup in Kharkiv and reinforce their offensive operations on Izyum
🇺🇦 Russian forces did not make any significant territorial advances in Kherson Oblast but focused on improving defensive positions and conducting aerial reconnaissance on April 12.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces showed signs of improving air defense in Melitopol.
☣️ “Mariupol is an optimal location in which Russian forces might use chemical weapons to demonstrate their willingness to escalate while reducing the risk that the international community could obtain incontrovertible proof of their violation of Russia’s international legal commitments to abstain from using such weapons. Russia’s encirclement of Mariupol allows Moscow to prevent outsiders from obtaining physical evidence or interviewing or examining survivors, and Russia’s control of the information coming out of Mariupol makes it difficult for survivors to show clear evidence of their symptoms to the world.”(Institute for the Study of War)
☣️ Zelensky: still waiting for confirmation on a chemical attack; no confirmed information yet, we’re looking into it
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that’s still the case, that poses a problem when…
⚠️ I started a substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
Mariupol