Ukraine - Wednesday, April 20
The US allegedly scared Russia with a nuclear threat, new jets in Ukraine, and Mariupol update
🇺🇦 The US allegedly threatened Russia with a nuclear response should Russia use tactical nuclear weapons. The United States made it clear to Putin's Russia that no nuclear threats would dissuade the Pentagon from supplying weapons to Ukraine. This is according to Russian journalist and politician Andrey Piontkovsky, during an interview with Ukraine 24.
🇺🇦 Russian journalist and politician Andrey Piontkovsky says there has been a striking difference in the US’s attitude towards Russia’s nuclear blackmail since early April. According Piontovsky, Putin was debating using tactical nuclear weapons, and the retaliatory threat caused him to change his mind. This is also (allegedly) why he went into hiding in his (luxury) bunker Siberia. I don’t know the fidelity of this information, I just know that Andrey Piontkovsky did in fact say it. This could just by his opinion.
🇺🇦 Ukraine has received new jets and jet parts. At the time of this writing it is unknown where they are from, but likely Slovakia
🇺🇦 Remember when I talked about “double envelopment” in eastern Ukraine? Russia is attacking on the Izyum axis. That’s a northern area in eastern Ukraine. It looks like forces in the south aren’t pushing the same way. So instead of a double envelopment, this looks like more of an encirclement. This haphazard strategy is likely due to Putin’s deadline of May 9. And this means that…
🇺🇦 Despited increased shelling, Russia continues to struggle to make significant progress because it is stifled by the environment, its logistical problems, and technical challenges, combined with the resilience of a highly motivated and (now) well trained Ukrainian armed forces
🇺🇦 There are still no major territorial gains from Russia, and we’re less than 3 weeks from Putin’s self-imposed deadline
🇺🇦 Russia tested its new intercontinental ballistic missile. While this is an obvious flex, it isn’t that big of a deal. They coordinated with America, keeping with Russia’s obligation under the New Start Treaty. But yeah, Russia intended this as a flex
🇺🇦 Dozens of countries are participating in a multi-day NATO cyber defense exercise
🇺🇦 Finland’s parliament has begun a historic debate today as to whether they should join NATO or not.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin says the ban on Russian players from the British tennis tournament at Wimbledon will hurt the sport and is unacceptable.
🇺🇦 80% of Russians approve of Putin’s job performance. Opinion: this data is suspect because the options are pretty much [ ] I support Putin [ ] I want jail
🇺🇦 Russian media is now calling Japan an enemy
🇺🇦 Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is planning to carry out forced mobilizations of Ukrainians in occupied areas. Ukrainians will be sent to the most dangerous places to fight. This has never, ever worked in the past. Opinion: I really hope some strong intelligence prevails and this turns into a net loss for Russia.
🇺🇦 Russian energy exports have collapsed by 20-25% in the past week.
🇺🇦 Germany has announced they will cease imports of Russian energy
🇺🇦 As of April 19th, more than 500,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly moved to Russia. This is being done to fix their inverted demographics, but this isn’t nearly enough to fix this massive demographics problem they have. It’s going to get worse for them.
🇺🇦 The British are still training Ukrainians in Ukraine, while America is still training Ukrainians in an undisclosed country. (The undisclosed country is Poland lol)
🇺🇦 Not really related, but China says Taiwan is part of China….but I dove into Taiwan’s defenses and there’s no way China will take Taiwan. They’ve been preparing for invasion for a long time now.
🇺🇦 Both Norway and South Korea will provide weapon systems to UA. Norway will provide 100 air defense systems.
🇺🇦 “Cargo 200” is a Soviet-era term referring to military cargo that was holding war corpses. Only mentioning this because Russian antiwar protesters are replacing “Z” signs with Cargo 200 signs.
Mariupol:
🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials say that Mariupol will fall within the coming hours….which makes like, 20 days in a row that it was supposed to fall within hours. I’ll be honest, I’ve reported a dozen times that Mariupol will fall. I can’t believe that I get the same report every day.
🇺🇦 (Pictured) For those following the Mariupol fight, attached is a picture with details of the recent fighting
🇺🇦 Russian forces made marginal gains in assaults against the Azovstal Steel Plant on April 20. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Video footage depicted Russian Naval Infantry and other mechanized units fighting on the outskirts of the plant. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Russian aircraft continued to heavily target the Azovstal plant. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Pro-Russian Telegram channels claimed that DNR militia and potentially Russian Special Operations forces are "clearing" the Azovstal Plant of Ukrainian sources, but we cannot confirm if Russian forces have been able to take portions of the plant itself. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Notably, DNR-appointed occupation authorities of Mariupol announced on April 20 that Russian and DNR forces will hold a ”Victory Day” parade in Mariupol on May 9. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 Russian forces may undertake hasty and poorly-organized offensive actions to clear Azovstal before this date. (Institute for the Study of War)
⚠️ I am ashamed of reporting Andrey Piontkovsky’s interview because it’s such low fidelity information…but I feel like I gave enough qualifiers, right?…right??
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research and my own opinion.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that’s still the case, that poses a problem when…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!