Ukraine - Wednesday, April 6
Russia's operational tempo, Ukrainian counter attacks, Russian dark web, Russian debt defaults, and warcrimes, are all highlighted as Russia regroups for an eastern attack.
Wednesday, April 5
🇺🇦 The US didn’t allow Russia to pay its sovereign debt. This kicks off a 30 day process that may lead to a default. This forces Russia to pay for the debt with money they have on hand rather than money in US banks. They will have to pay in their own dollar reserves which will deplete it or cause a default. This means they have even less money for their war effort (Jessica M, that update is for your friend!)
🇺🇦Russian atrocities were discovered in Borodianka. There is significant evidence that Russian soldiers are killing for pleasure. (CNN) If I started describing the depravity of what’s going on, everyone would unfollow me.
🇺🇦 No changes in negotiations. Remember: My opinion is that Russia weaponizes peace talks and they should not be trusted
🇺🇦 Pres. Zelensky said that a withdrawal to Russia’s Feb 23rd position would be considered a victory for now.
🇺🇦 Zelensky said fighting for the territory of Donbas, occupied since 2014, would cost them 45-50,000 of their best trained people, and the enemy would just return next month. Opinion: I don’t like this concession, and I’m really, really, really hoping that UA uses their new found power over garbage war fighting capability of Russia to kick them out of both Donbas and Crimea. That said, Zelensky knows better than I do what’s possible.
🇺🇦 Czech Republic has sent dozens of tanks to UA.
🇺🇦 The Australia/UK/US alliance said they will rapidly build up hypersonic missiles that the three will use together.
🇺🇦 US/EU/G7 will expand sanctions on financial institutions in Russia as well as sanctions on gov members and their family members. This will cease additional investments in Russia from G7 nations. Sorry, I don’t know he scope of “additional investments” and I don’t know if that means “all investments”
🇺🇦 The US treasury is now sanctioning Russian dark web market place “Hydra.” Hydra is the largest dark web marketplace by revenue. It is popular among many cyber criminals around the world. It operates mostly in Russia. Germany shut down most of the servers known to host the Hydra marketplace. In addition authorities are now tracking down and taking out various areas of cryptocurrency that is tied to Russian cyber criminals. Option: First off, wtf, Russia has a dark web market place, and second, it’s called Hydra? When people call Russia a criminal state, I didn’t know how literal it was.
🇺🇦 Side note, I learned today that cryptocurrency is not secure from the government. The US knows how to deal with crypto, and it’s an open book.
🇺🇦 US Sec of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Brussels today ahead of his meeting with other NATO foreign ministers. This meeting is to talk about the new phase in Ukraine which is more of a protracted effort, and what NATO is going to do about it.
🇺🇦 22 nations along with the EU have expelled 500 Russian diplomats(read: spies) in the past 5 days
🇺🇦 The Dutch seized 14x 110+ foot luxury yachts owned by the Russians. Like…was Russia’s chief import mega yachts?
🇺🇦 Kyiv Independent is reporting that the Mariupol City Council says see Russia is using mobile crematoria in Mariupol to cover up the war crimes as not to expose themselves to international outcry, like in Bucha. Edit: I see more and more reporting on this topic
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers left explosive traps in apartments in Bucha as they left
🇺🇦 Yup, verified, Russian troops dug trenches in the highly contaminated “Red Forest” of Chernobyl
🇺🇦 Russian media commentators, who remain convinced that Russia saved Kazakhstan by invading Kazakhstan in January, are outraged that Kazakhstan is not supporting Russia in the Ukrainian war but rather publicly taking positions that challenge all of the Kremlin’s claims.
🇺🇦 I got it in my head that I want to adopt a Ukrainian orphan. I got real fired up about it. After reaching out to my lovely friend Suzanne, and then seeking my state’s adoption offices for advice, I’ve discovered that this is a huge process (duh, right?) and I don’t think it will be possible. This is a bummer because…
🇺🇦 Ukrainians feeling the Russian invasion have reached Tijuana seeking US asylum. More are expected. 2,000 are waiting to cross the border. Mexico officials say they are housing them in sporting complexes while the process goes through. They are being processed as we speak.
🇺🇦 The US is welcoming up to 100,000 Ukrainians. Someone tell me the process of volunteering to house a family.
Propaganda:
🇨🇳 China refuses to condemn Russia for war crimes and is going so far as to repeat Russian talking points on state media that the Bucha photos may have been staged
🇷🇺 Remember the photos of the pregnant woman that survived the Russian bombing of the maternity ward? The one that Russia called her a crisis actor? Okay so I haven’t been able to verify this with multiple sources, but apparently Russia tracked her down, and forced her to do pro-Russian propaganda videos, which allows Russia to “prove” that the hospital bombings were faked. Consider this low fidelity information, but I wanted to mention it anyway, because it’s from one source that I’ve relied on.
🇷🇺 According to a female POW….I’m going to skip all of what she said, but Russia is violating Article 13 of the Geneva Convention. They were also forced to do pro-Russian propaganda videos
Operations:
🇺🇦 Operational tempo is slowing down everywhere
🇺🇦 There is widespread skepticism that the troops withdrawn from Kyiv will even been effective because of their degraded state
🇺🇦 UA forces did continue organized resistance in Mariupol. So it’s still a stalemate. Although Russians may be reinforcing soon. No set timeframe.
🇷🇺 Russia has not yet reintroduced the forces that were withdrawn from Kyiv. Honestly, they were mopped up pretty hard, I’m surprised that intelligence feels they’re still in play, but I guess they are.
🇷🇺 Russian troops continue to leave the Sumy Oblast. They are now in the Konotop, which is a city close to the Russian border.
🇷🇺 Two Russian columns left Izyum. One went to Brazhkivka—a captured village—and the other one got destroyed.
🇷🇺 Russia used cluster bombs on a zoo in Kharkiv. The animals will be relocated to Odessa
🇷🇺 Russia also used cluster munitions in Mykolaiv striking several hospitals. Doctors Without Borders was in the pediatric hospital when it was hit
🇺🇦 Intense fighting continued in Mariupol. No new gains on either size. This stalemate has gone on for 35 days.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces have moved within 20km of Kherson (from the North East Side). This is a port/river city about 100 miles east of Odessa. Russia defended their position in Kherson, and stopped the advancement.
🇺🇸 There is increased risk of significant international conflict. (Joint Chief Gen. Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin). "We are now facing two global powers: China and Russia, each with significant military capabilities both who intend to fundamentally change the rules based current global order…We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable and the potential for significant international conflict is increasing, not decreasing."
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
⚠️ Note: I’m getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It’s all the same sources as it’s always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
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