🇺🇦 The Battle for Kherson is underway. (Pictured)
🇺🇦 Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces have broken through the first line of defenses in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast and are seeking to take advantage of the disruption of Russian ground lines of communication caused by Ukrainian HIMARS strikes over many weeks.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian breakthroughs are confirmed in Kherson in three directions
🇺🇦 Ukraine has requested everyone goes dark in posting and information, videos, and photos of the battle due to OPSEC
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s MO has turned into: striking large groupings, then pushing the line where Russian forces are dispersed
🇺🇦 Ukraine controls all River crossings in the south
🇺🇦 Most key bridges into Kherson are rendered useless, preventing the resupply of heavy Russian weapons
🇺🇦 Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are stuck in Kherson with no resupply
🇺🇦 Ukraine has offered defection and surrender options to occupying Russian soldiers
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River. Institute for the Study of war suggests that the effects of destroying ferries will likely be more ephemeral than those of putting bridges out of commission, so attacking them makes sense in conjunction with active ground operations.
🇺🇦 Russia is claiming they’ve destroyed more HIMARS than Ukraine actually has. But the reason isn’t propaganda…the reason is because Ukraine is building fake wooden HIMARS launchers and Russia is destroying them and claiming wins (Washington Post)
🇺🇦 Russian contractors were instructed to concrete over the remains of those murdered in the Mariupol Drama Theater. They refused…but refused because the odor seeps through the concrete and no one has bleach
🇺🇦 Ukrainians in Crimea are providing Ukraine with intelligence, and Ukraine is using it.
🇺🇦 Russian commanders are fleeing Kherson. I don’t know the rate of fleeing, but I’ve seen multiple reports from different sources.
🇺🇦 Intercepted calls show that at least some Russian soldiers are considering murdering their commanders in order to escape Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia is facing a sever personnel shortage
🇺🇦 The Russian Army has done the impossible, and is now recruiting in Moscow.
🇺🇦 I heard a rumor that Kherson’s installed government has completely disappeared
🇺🇦 Russia created a new unit (3rd Army Corps) to train in an effort to turn the tide of war. Instead, this unit is getting drunk and harassing locals. This is Wall Street Journal reporting. “ they walk around groups and harass. It would be one thing if they were being trained and stayed on their base. But they’re walking around drunk from 11 AM
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops destroyed a Russian headquarters in Nova Kakhovka
🇺🇦 EU foreign ministers agreed to fully suspend EU’s visa facilitation agreement with Russia
🇺🇦 The U.S. State Department and Yale identified 21 concentration camps in Russian-controlled territories. Imagery is consistent with mass graves
🇺🇦 The US conducted 'war games' with Kyiv before Kherson counteroffensive. (And now I figured out how my unnamed source knew when the Battle of Kherson would begin!)
🇺🇦 Politico reports that Russian spies have infiltrated the German government in the energy sector. According to the article Germany's domestic intelligence service is looking into the case of two government employees "who are involved with energy supply in key positions" and might be Kremlin moles. (This reminds me of when Russia got into all of those American nuclear facilities in like 2016 and started publishing pictures of nuclear configurations)
🇺🇦 A Ukrainian T-64BV tank crew destroyed a Russian tank from a distance of 10,600 meters in indirect fire mode using 125mm HE-FRAG projectiles. As claimed, it took 20 projectiles to finish the tank. This is likely the longest tank-to-tank kill ever.
🇺🇦 Putin is setting legal and social conditions for the coerced cultural assimilation of displaced Ukrainians in Russia to erase their Ukrainian cultural identity.
🇺🇦 Russia continues to move equipment into Crimea
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
Today is September 10. I have not received an update since Aug 31. Have you retired?