🇺🇦 Pictured: Iran must have run out of really long tables.
🇺🇦 An investigation by El Pais indicates the existence of at least 20 Russian and Syrian ships that turn off the navigation systems to avoid detection and illegally remove wheat from occupied Ukrainian territories.
🇺🇦 The big news today is the intercepted call, where a Russian soldier describes the staggering losses. ''There used to be 670 of us, but now there are only 130’’. “We're losing.” Artillery barrels are "so curved" they miss their targets by kilometers.
🇺🇦 Regarding artillery barrels are “so curved”….while researching, I found this nugget from a Russian artilleryman (Thanks JB). “The barrels wear out quickly, faster than the factory parameters, because either the steel is worthless, or they are made with a violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now, because there are few new trunks. Near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, at some point, one of the three guns worked for us. And it looks like it will get worse in the future”
🇺🇦 And that lead me to a nugget I missed from March 28: A top Russian commander took his own life after realizing that 90% of tanks in reserve were unusable and un-serviceable because parts had been stolen. Additional reports at the time verified this specific account happened.
🇺🇦 UA struck the Antonovsky Bridge near Kherson, which is threatening the RU supply line. This is a big problem for RU in Kherson
🇺🇦 UA is holding the line in Donbas, though Russia continues to make gains, albeit minimal.
🇺🇦 The International Criminal Court aims to move forward with a case over Russian war crimes in Ukraine closer to winter. Russia might face first Hague war crime case this year.
🇺🇦 The governor of Mykolaiv announced local authorities are temporarily closing Mykolaiv to arrest Russian collaborators. Local authorities are currently processing data about alleged collaboration activities and will close the entire city for one or two days in order to carry out arrests.
🇺🇦 200 UA soldiers have been trained in HIMARS.
🇺🇦 US to deliver 4 more HIMARS bringing the total to 16. I *think* 20 total have been earmarked for delivery.
🇺🇦 Lithuania to provide Ukraine with more armored personnel carriers, ammunition.
🇺🇦 EU to provide Ukraine with new 500 million euros military assistance.
🇺🇦 Russia is continuing their offensive in Donetsk
🇺🇦 Beirut ports rejected Russian ships with 54 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain.
🇺🇦 Ukraine carries out covert operations deep inside Russian-occupied territories. In early June, Ukraine carried out a discrete operation which destroyed a Wagner Group base 45 km east of the front line in the Luhansk Oblast. (That update is for Mike S)
🇺🇦 EU is preparing to cut gas consumption by 15% in case Russia cuts off their supply.
🇺🇦 Ukraine says Russia has 86 oligarchs. This is due to a new definition by a law that seeks to limit the influence of oligarchs in Ukraine. The new definition is “people who have significant influence on media, participate in political life, own monopolies, and are worth more than Hr 2.27 billion” ($81.3 million)
🇺🇦 The opening bullet point was maybe a 5/10 on the humor scale. But it’s like a 9/10 in dad joke scale!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
I like dad jokes. (4 kids.) I keep the jokes in my dadabase.