Wednesday, June 1
China is performing drills on Russia's border, and oh hey, Russia is doing criminal stuff again
🇺🇦 I keep seeing speculation on Putin’s health based on pictures. Remember, no good doctor would diagnose a patient through pictures alone. I’ve heard of intercepted calls where people close to Putin discuss his health, and those hold much more weight.
🇺🇦 Russia is stealing art work from Ukrainian museums, because that’s what a criminal state does. Also, Russia has destroyed 29 Ukrainian museums.
🇺🇦 The US has conducted offensive ‘hunt forward’ cyber operations against Russia. This means that the US identifies malicious Russian hackers and observes them to determine capabilities and vulnerabilities
🇺🇦 For the past three months or so, China has been running escalatory war drills in its far North East border that borders Russia. It started with small unit tactics and now its practicing large combined-arms drills. This has some military experts around the world, including experts in Russia, concerned that China might make a play for Russian territory since Russia is so vulnerable right now.
🇺🇦 The Chinese Air Force is practicing bombing runs against ground targets that look suspiciously like Russian ground formations
🇺🇦 Ukraine's armed forces killed Russia's top sniper. News of the death of Alexander Kislinsky, a sniper in Russia's GRU/GU's 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade was reported by multiple Russian channels on Telegram and VK, the Russian social media platform similar to Facebook.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are making incremental advances north of Slovyansk but likely have not yet been able to take control of the road into Slovyansk. I haven’t been following Slovyanks closely so I don’t have any additional insight here.
🇺🇦 UA military liberated more than 20 settlements in Kherson. If you recall, Russia’s whole thing is to take a city, then leave, and then UA just comes back and re-takes it. This is why UA prefers to withdraw rather than expend forces to defend.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are attempting to advance towards Lysychansk from the south and west in order to avoid having to fight across the Siverskyi Donets River (from Severodonetsk) but are having limited succes.
🇺🇦 Russian military bloggers (e.g., me, but using Russian flag emojis) are expressing growing alarm about the threat of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the areas Russian forces have deprioritized while concentrating on Severodonetsk.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to undermine the economic viability of areas they are attempting to capture…they are doing things like blowing up the factories and other means of production. This invasion is being done by a criminal organization with criminal intent.
🇺🇦 Russian troops made incremental gains north of Avdiivka. I have not been following this area so I don’t have much additional insight.
🇺🇦 There’s been some drama regarding Biden’s pledge to deliver long range multiple rocket launch systems to UA. BLUF: The US isn’t sending the long, long, long range MLRS systems to Russia in fear that they might be used to strike Russian soil, but Ukraine doesn’t give an f because the US is sending the sexy Lockheed precision HIMARS systems, which are shorter range but guided, more accurate, rapidly deployable, and just all around better (minus the range). And still, these things go like 50 miles
🇺🇦 UA has pledged not to strike Russian territory with US rockers. While I was hoping UA would take the fight to Russia, this compromise makes sense, and is well worth it to get these rocket systems.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are making Mariupol residents help them clean up the city in exchange for access to drinking water. This is slave labor, and the work they’re making them do is hiding evidence of atrocities.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
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I see no problem with striking Russian military targets in Russia or Belarus. Better to kill them before they enter Ukraine.