🇺🇦 Pictured: Ukraine farmers continue farming amidst the war
🇺🇦 UA continues to deny Russia complete control of Severodonetsk, while making small gains in Kherson.
🇺🇦 Zelensky says that 1,026 settlements in seven different regions have been liberated since the peak of Russia’s full scale invasion
🇺🇦 Russia has shuffled its command structure which indicates ongoing dysfunction within RU military leadership.
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War says there are potential drastic rotations in the Russian military, and may constitute a purge of senior officers blamed for failures in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia does not train as they fight. They have a “parade army.” They look good walking down the street. But when they start fighting a well-trained military, they just can’t compete.
🇺🇦 Note, Ukraine isn’t even a top 10 well-trained military globally.
🇺🇦 Russia can’t gain air superiority (duh) because of their hesitance to cross into UA airspace due to anti-aircraft weapons as well as a functioning UA Air Force. Again, Russia’s air force is a parade air force trained to impress senior officers, but not to actually fight.
🇺🇦 Slovakia will reportedly transfer 12 MiG 29 fighters to Ukraine immodestly after Poland and the Czech Republic agree to protect Slovakian airspace until the US can provide them with F16s.
🇺🇦 According to UK Defense Ministry, the coastal defenses of Ukraine have neutralized Russia’s ability to control the Black Sea.
🇺🇦 Russia is prepared to deploy a large number of reserves to the Donbas
🇺🇦 In Severondontsk, heavy shelling continues as Russia still has artillery superiority
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions on Snake Island in the Black Sea. The manner of strike indicates that western artillery is in play.
🇺🇦 Russian operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis are increasingly stalled as Russian forces prioritize operations around Severodonetsk.
🇺🇦 Russian forces recaptured the eastern bank of the Inhulets River from the Ukrainian bridgehead situated near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are having a hard time recruiting local collaborators and are likely relying on Russian government personnel to consolidate their societal control of occupied Ukrainian territories.
🇺🇦 At the same time, resistance is increasing in occupied territories.
🇺🇦 US continues dialog with Russia over captured US fighters. These fighters do technically receive Geneva Convention protections and support since they are volunteers for the UA army and not mercenaries.
🇺🇦 The US is supporting Lithuania’s freight (and now road) traffic to Kaliningrad.
🇺🇦 Estonia intelligence observed a missile attack simulation carried out by Russia. Finland said it’s ready to defend itself from a Russian attack.
🇺🇦 Russian helicopters continue to violate Estonian airspace. Russian ships continue to violate other territorial waters, such as Denmark. I say that to say Russia isn’t doing this to the US, UK, or Canada. They do this to smaller countries, but they won’t do it adversaries that can actually defend themselves.
🇺🇦 UA’s ministry of defense says there are up to 7 Belarusian battalions comprising of up to 4,000 personnel concentrated near the UA border. There are Russian troops in that grouping as well. As a reminder, Putin is having a meeting with Lukashenko at the end of the month.
🇺🇦 Note: Belarus likely won’t get involved with this fight.
🇺🇦 Russia’s military force designated specifically to counter NATO (“Western Military District”) is gone. The only survivors are the objectors who refused to fight. I think the best parallel to US would be if the US Pacific Command (PACOM) was simply gone. An intercepted RU soldier’s call says that only eastern volunteers are passing through on the way to fight.
🇺🇦 Often times I mention specific small victories that UA has but don’t do the same for Russia. This is often because the data fidelity is really bad coming from the Russian side, and I only get the Ukraine view of Russian victories.
👥 A military historian may be able to describe this better, but there’s a 250 year history of Russia throwing a massive number lives at a problem as their solution. This goes back all the way to fighting Napoleon. Every war they seem to just dump lives at a warfront as their strategy (this almost always results in some sort of revolution, coup, or leadership removal). I say to say…
👥 People incorrectly assume that China will easily be able to take Taiwan and even the US because they have the largest manpower advantage of any country in the world, by a large amount. But in a modern war, with modern equipment, manpower just doesn’t matter as much. Knowing how to fight matters
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.