🇺🇦 Pictured: Sorry, it’s late, so you get a meme dump instead of helpful, illustrative, or informative pictures
🇺🇦 NATO formally invited Finland and Sweden to join
🇺🇦 Russia state news reacted to the above news by saying it was “destabilizing”…to which Ukraine released a video of Russia’s mall strike
🇺🇦 Russia state news said that Finland and Sweden joining NATO will not help member states….but they’re probably just upset about Lake NATO (the Baltic Sea), which can now completely block Russia’s sea access.
🇺🇦 And to all my Russian bot readers, remember that Finland and Sweden only applied to join NATO because Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
🇺🇦 With UA and Moldova gaining candidate status to the EU, literally everything Putin wanted is going in the opposite direction….all thanks to Putin.
🇺🇦 Biden is meeting with South Korea and Japan on the sidelines of this NATO conference. This signals that NATO may become more of a global alliance for security against Russia…..all because Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia published the Pentagon’s coordinates….a place where you can literally book a tour
🇺🇦 The above is presumably for internal Russian consumption in an attempt to show the Russian population some sort of information superiority, but it just underlines how zombified their population is.
🇺🇦 144 servicemen, including 95 Azovstal defenders, return home in a POW swap.
🇺🇦 People on both sides of this swap had sever injuries, so most likely this swap had to do with the respective countries not want to deal with it anymore.
🇺🇦 Russian collaborators in Kherson continue to get blown up.
🇺🇦 Continued reports of the HIMARS systems being very effective
🇺🇦 Italy is debating sending howitzers to Ukraine
🇺🇦 The war has been going on for 126 days
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 5 tanks for every 1 Ukraine loss
🇺🇦 Ukraine regained territory in Kherson in a major counter offensive
🇺🇦 Thousands of UA servicemen are being trained abroad
🇺🇦 NATO declared sustained support of Ukraine for “as long as necessary”
🇺🇦 Russia entered Lysychansk from the south, and the battle will end soon. Ukraine has already withdrawn from Lysychanks and there are only rear guards left
🇺🇦 The US imposed trade restrictions on 5 Chinese companies for supplying Russian entities on the sanctions list. This is the thing China fears the most.
🇺🇦 US is using the Commerce Department to investigate and seek out sanctions violators, and taking action against them. So we will likely see more of the above more and more in the coming days and weeks.
🇺🇦 The US has a strong internalized market and industry, and sanctioning countries doesn’t really affect it. For example, EU has a tough time sanctioning Russia because they are dependent on Russia for certain commodities. But not the US. So we will likely start seeing more screw-tightening for sanction violators.
🇺🇦 Due to sanctions, and at this pace, Russia will have to scrap half of its planes for spare parts in the coming year(s). Russia doesn’t have the capability to build new parts. They likely had more of a capability to build parts 20 years ago, but their economy has been gutted by oligarchs since.
🇺🇦 There is a realistic possibility that the missile that hit the mall was intended for a nearby target. Russia’s inaccuracy has previously lead to mass civilian causalities. However, Russia isn’t saying any of this, they’re just saying the mall wasn’t destroyed. Like, that’s it, that’s their whole defense. (It was completely destroyed)
🇺🇦 Putin is trying to strengthen ties with that Taliban.
🇺🇦 Putin is trying to get Iran to join the BRICS alliance. Oh geez, one more thing I have to become an expert on so I can talk about this war without sounding like an idiot
🇺🇦 Russia is facing major struggles with its spring draft. Most areas are at 35% or less of their conscript quota. Some are as low as 18%
🇺🇦 The Duma is changing the law to allow conscripts can convert to contact service immediately to avoid the 3-4 months of basic training and go straight from draft to fighting status. Yes, war fighting with no training.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
.... avoid basic training and go straight to fighting status.
Every see Enemy at the Gate? (Actually a good movie). Russia is still following the same pattern.
2 minute video clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMjYNKED0U0