Sorry for another short post, and thank you for all the well wishes!
🇺🇦 Ukraine ordered the Azovstal defenders to surrender, in hopes of a yet-to-be-determined POW exchange.
🇺🇦 Russia agreed to this surrender because it would hasten their takeover of the city.
🇺🇦 However, the announcement of a conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian infosphere. Russia has been getting major criticism and ridicule from pro-Russian social media for having to negotiate a victory.
🇺🇦 Now, some Russian State Duma (Duma ≈ Russia’s Congress) are petitioning to pass laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges. There is a lot of pro-Russian social media chatter calling for the imprisonment or execution of the Azovstal defenders.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk (Eastern Ukraine).
🇺🇦 Ukraine has “practically withdrawn from negotiation” with Russia. Russia is losing and their military is on the verge of collapse, but they’re not budging on any of their demands, so UA doesn’t think there’s a point to negotiating.
🇺🇦 Chinese technology exports to Russia (laptops, phones, telecommunication equipment, etc) plummeted in March once western sanctions hit Russia. This comes from trade data. There were questions over whether China would help Russia, and these trade figures show that Bejing is reluctant to do so. This is likely out of fear of US retaliation on Chinese exporters
🇺🇦 AlexHook2303 is still posting TikTok videos to let his daughter know he’s okay.
🇺🇦 Apparently a lot of people who read these SITREPs are nuclear physicists!
🇺🇦 I can’t recall if I brought it up, and maybe it’s old news at this point, but Finland and Sweden have formally applied to be in NATO.
🇺🇦 Turkey continues to bluster about vetoing Finland and Sweden’s ascension (which they can totally do). However, the waffling makes it sound like they just want to get stuff out of the deal…likely something about armed Kurdish groups. Speculation says Turkey will eventually agree.
🇺🇦 EU is ramping up efforts to become energy independent from Russian, pledging to spend $315 billion to speed up the transition. Called “Repower EU,” this program will include diversifying energy imports (finally!), becoming more energy efficient, and accelerating the transition to clean energy. It ups the EU’s 2030 energy efficiency target from 9% to 13%, and 2030 renewable energy target from 40% to 45%. It will also speed up the renewables permitting procedures.
🇺🇦 The Deputy Prime Ministry of Russia, Yuri Borisov, says Russia’s military doctrine determines it can only use nuclear weapons in retaliation, and not in a first strike capacity….which is exactly what someone would say if they’re out of tritium gas!!!!
🇺🇦 Russian blockades are still preventing wheat deliveries. Germany is trying to circumvent this by railing UA wheat to their ports, but that will take time.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
Can we begin referring to this war as the 2022 Ukrainian War for Independence?