Discover more from Ukraine SITREP
Wednesday, May 25
Russian leaders and pro-Russian social media personalities try to explain why Russia isn't advancing faster
🇺🇦 Pictured: The turret of a destroyed Russian tank in Zalissia, Ukraine, May 2022
🇺🇦 Putin survived an assassination attempt about two months ago, Ukrainian intelligence says
🇺🇦 Kyrylo Budanov told Pravda in an interview preview that the assassination was "absolutely unsuccessful." "There was an attempt to assassinate Putin. … He was even attacked, it is said, by representatives of the Caucasus, not so long ago. This is non-public information. [It was an] Absolutely unsuccessful attempt, but it really happened. … It was about 2 months ago.”
🇺🇦 If true, this explains why Putin and high ranking officials fled to Putin’s luxury bunker in Surgut, Siberia, last March.
🇺🇦 Russian sailors of the 106th brigade of surface ships of the Caspian Flotilla staged a mutiny and refuse to carry out combat duties as they ‘perceive each trip to the sea as a one-way ticket’
🇺🇦 EU has suspended the import tax on UA goods for one year
🇺🇦 UA intelligence: Russia has used 60% of all of it’s precision weapons, and that Russia cannot replenish this supply
🇺🇦 Newly declassified US intelligence shows that the naval blockade of UA maritime trade
🇺🇦 US intelligence says Russia’s naval blockade of UA maritime ports are a deliberate attack on global food supply. This threatens political instability and food shortages
🇺🇦 South East Asia, Northern Africa, and the Middle East are at the greatest threat of food insecurity
🇺🇦 Russia said it is willing to create a corridor for UA grain shipments if the west lifts sanctions, which suggests Russia is using food as a form of blackmail
🇺🇦 Opinion: Russia is willing to let developing nations starve in order to try to shake western resolve in the face of a global famine. Good job Russia this is why the world is against you
🇺🇦 The RU state Duma has removed the age restrictions for service, so we might see more 60-year old pilots being shot down like we did yesterday
🇺🇦 22,000 UA citizens died during Russia’s 3-month siege of Mariupol
🇺🇦 RU Defense Minister Shoigu says the Russian advance is going slowly because Russia wants to afford civilians with the ability to evacuate 🙄
🇺🇦 Speaking of that, Senior Kremlin officials are increasingly openly admitting that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated and are grasping for explanations to justify the slow pace.
🇺🇦 Russian nationalist social media personalities are increasingly confused at the lack of progress in Ukraine, especially since the RU gov keeps telling them that everything is going so well
🇺🇦 Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements—enabling them to make incremental measured gains.
🇺🇦 Russian forces will face insurgencies if they successfully encircle Severodonetsk. Russia won’t be able to handle this.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis.
🇺🇦 Russia forced citizens from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to serve. DNR servicemen are openly protesting.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
🇺🇸The world has a billion problems. All of them are pressing and essential. I will do my best to address this Russo-Ukraine problem. My hope is that someone better than me will tackle the school shooting problem.