Wednesday, November 16
The missile that hit Poland was an Ukrainian air defense missile, possibly a Russian-made S-300 missile operated by UA
🇺🇦 The missile that struck Poland appears to have been a Ukrainian missile defense system.
🇺🇦 Poland has now backed away from invoking discussions under NATO’s Article 4, in which it would have triggered further consultations about how to defend itself.
🇺🇦 Last night, Ukraine told the US and allies that it attempted missile interception near site of Polish strike.
🇺🇦 Cool heads prevailed. The missile strike in Poland could have threatened European stability so it was being treated very seriously, and very cautiously.
🇺🇦 It is suggested that the missile is a Russian-made S-300 air defense system operated by the Ukrainians
🇺🇦 Russia praised the US for its “measured” response. "In this instance, attention should be paid to the measured and more professional response from the American side," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
🇺🇦 Zelensky said that he had received signals from Western partners regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's desire for direct negotiations with Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Zelensky does not want negotiations with Putin, because the Russians only issue ultimatums
🇺🇦 Zelensky also confirmed a meeting with CIA Director Burns. "Yesterday, Burns sat in the bomb shelter. And then we talked with him. We discussed all the issues that are important to us. We know each other. He is on the side of Ukraine," Zelensky said.
🇺🇦 After Kherson, the pace of gains will slow down.
ℹ️ℹ️ℹ️Old news from last night, but I already wrote it, so this serves as a record of what happened in the past 24 hours:ℹ️ℹ️ℹ️
🇺🇦 Given that Poland is an Article V ally, the stakes are very high, and everything is being conducted very methodically.
🇺🇦 What we know is there were two explosions, 9km from the UA border
🇺🇦 It is almost impossible to determine what type of missile it was based on OSINT alone. EOD experts are working on it
🇺🇦 Biden admin says it's "unlikely" missile that hit Poland were fired from Russia
🇺🇦 No definitive conclusion on the origin. The US says the trajectory does not appear to have come from Russia. Information released to the public suggests that the US has not seen any clear evidence that this came from Russia
🇺🇦 Theories: 1) malfunctioning missiles from Russia, which includes operator error 2) The debris were actually both a Ukrainian anti-air defense missile as well as the Russian missile it mitigated 3) The missiles were mitigated Russian missiles 4) a Russian missile overshot it’s Kyiv target
🇺🇦 There is widespread agreement that no matter the end cause, the fact is that Russia is ultimately responsible for the conflict that caused this
🇺🇦 Poland has an air defense radar about 40km from the impact. Speculation: If that radar was running, then Poland already knows the answer to all of this. Poland has scrambled fighters which means Poland might have already know the trajectory of the missile. If this is true it *could* have been deliberate. Again, all of that is speculation
🇺🇦 Russia stated they had nothing to do with this. Isolated Russian media is trolling Poland by saying stuff like “so that’s how you want it?”
🇺🇦 Over the next 24 hours there are going to be emergency meetings with the G7, G20, the Ramstein working group will meet tomorrow
🇺🇦 NATO ambassadors will hold an emergency Article 4 meeting today (Nov 16, EST) at Poland’s request. Article 4 basically says “We need to talk” and it summons everyone. This is the appropriate response.
🇺🇦 All NATO nations are talking, everyone is very intensely engaged.
🇺🇦 I’ve read dozens of articles and messages and official statements and quotes between NATO allies and it’s like they’re raising the banners. “We verify the premises of Article 4 of NATO. We are in contact with our allies and we expect talks with the American side”
🇺🇦 Estonia: “Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory. We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland."
🇺🇦 Hungary has convened its defense council. Edit: There’s no point in calling out Hungary specifically…most NATO countries convened their equivalent of a defense council.
🇺🇦 A polish reporter said it was the remains of a shot down Russian rocket, but the US is being tight lipped about it
🇺🇦 I want to highlight my below warning: ⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
ℹ️ Other news:
🇺🇦 The mood in liberated Kherson is joyful: “We have no heating, no electricity, no water, no mobile or internet connection, but NO RUSSIANS! I am extremely happy because now we are free.”
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom