🚢 The Russian fleet in Sevastopol Bay was attacked by 9 UAVs and 7 marine drones.
🚢 [Pictured] There are visual confirmations of the use of surface drones
🚢 The Russian flagship, the Admiral Makarov of the Russian Black Sea fleet was hit. The Admiral Makarov was made the flagship after the Moskva was sunk
🚢 At least three RU naval ships used for firing cruise missiles were destroyed
🚢 Minesweeper "Ivan Golubets" was damaged - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
🚢 The surface drones had Sea-Doo engines
🇺🇦 US has carried out site inspections in Ukraine to ensure equipment/aid is being used by Ukraine's military as intended
🇺🇦 The IRIS-T air defense system provided by Germany earlier this month worked with 100% success on Oct 31, during a massive missile strike. This was announced by the speaker of the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat.
🇺🇦 In an intercepted call released by UA intelligence, Russia has a “retreat-blocking detachment” meant to shoot at retreating Russians. “That’s how we have it set up. We sit on the second line, guarding the first. Behind us, there’s another line. If you go that way, you also won’t make it. So it’s impossible to run away. They shoot their own.”
🇺🇦 23 Russian conscripts have died during training: this amounts to one in five deaths recorded by Novaya Gazeta Europe. The causes of their deaths vary: physical altercations, alcohol, drugs, suicide, and accidents.
🇺🇦 It appears as though Wagner mercenaries executed one of their own men and try to extort the wrong set of relatives to sell the corpse back to them. Wagner's recruitment of criminals is leading to more crimes against their own side.
🇺🇦 “Every man killed is a catastrophe for Russian society, let alone its faltering army.” Russia is using Soviet human wave doctrine in Ukraine, and it is a catastrophe because there are no booming demographics to make human life cheap enough for this strategy (….which is the most cringe-worth thing I’ve had to write here). The Telegraph reporting
🇺🇦I’ve noticed the number of RU troop deaths is accelerating. At the beginning of the invasion it was 100-200 per day…now I’m seeing consistent 400+ troops per day
🇺🇦 I have read multiple unconnected articles that China may forgo Taiwan and make a grab for Eastern Russia now that they see how weak Russia is. Russia’s far east has hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese.
🇺🇦 …“Less than two decades after China and the Soviet Union signed their last friendship treaty, the two countries engaged in a sharp series of border fights. Expansion-minded Chinese nationalists, coupled with China’s increasing and barely concealed contempt for Russian weakness, have the power to erode Russia and China’s current rapprochement in a matter of moments.”
🇺🇦 First unaccompanied Ukrainian child refugee arrives in Wales
🇺🇦 Around 1,000 children are expected to arrive in the UK without parents or guardians, with around 15 coming to Walesp.
🇺🇦 A trade boom in home appliances is worrying European officials. Home appliances, such as washing machines, refrigerators, and even electric breast pumps, may be stripped down for parts to get around sanctions. “Officials in Europe have already said publicly they have seen parts from refrigerators and washing machines showing up in Russian military equipment such as tanks since its invasion of Ukraine.”
🇺🇦 Zelensky has called on Biden to formally declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, a request that has broad bipartisan support in Congress.
🇺🇦 Biden accused oil and gas companies of ‘war profiteering’ and is threatening a windfall tax.
ℹ️ Israel / Iran subplot
🇺🇦 Israel seems to be stepping up their support for Ukraine by targeting Iran
🇺🇦 Israel president gave the US intel on Iran drones in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran were assassinated by unidentified gunmen in Zahedan. One of them was Colonel "Mehdi Molashahi" who was responsible for supplying drones to Russia. (Comments on the internet are all speculating—without evidence—that this was Mossad)
ℹ️ Moldova subplot
🇺🇦 FBS may intend to carry out a coup d'etat in Moldova
🇺🇦 Moldova has been pro-Ukraine during this entire conflict.
🇺🇦 Transnistria is a breakaway region of Moldova. Russia has supported Transnistria.
🇺🇦 A few months ago, Transnistria announced intentions to join Russia. Not much seems to have come from this?
🇺🇦 Russia’s FBS is actively working to subvert Moldova’s pro-western government
ℹ️ Vladimir Solovyov subplot
🇺🇦 Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov. “We'll put 10-15 million of people ‘under rifle’ [mobilize] and we'll take a walk across Europe. If they don't understand something - there's nuclear weapon to clarify."
🇺🇦 Top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov endorses Kadyrov's proclamation that Russia is embroiled in a jihad against Ukraine. He calls it a holy war. Solovyov sighs, moans and angrily ponders whether Russia actually has the nukes, since everything else is in such short supply.
🇺🇦 Top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov calls it a holy war, sighs, moans and angrily ponders whether Russia actually has the nukes, since everything else is in such short supply.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom