🚨Russia announced a partial mobilization
🚨Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spoke after Putin's address to the nation, said 300,000 men would now be called up.
🚨The call is for men with ‘previous military experience’ which is functionally *all* men between ages 18 and 65
🚨Protests are breaking out all over Russia, from Moscow to the eat. This is exactly what Putin feared, and why he didn’t mobilize earlier.
🚨Pictured: 500 people across Russia have been arrested as protests broke out immediately. Update: 735
🚨Protesters in Moscow heard chanting “Send Putin to the trenches”
🚨 Google data shows that Russians are looking to flee Russia if a possible mobilization occurs. Edit: This was last night before the mobilization was announced
🚨In order to prevent fleeing, Russia will no longer let men between 18-65 buy plane tickets without approval from the Ministry of Defense.
🚨Reports of panic and fear throughout Russia. “I don’t want to be cannon fodder”
🚨Flights out of Russia are full
🚨“How to break arm” became a top Google trend in Russia after the announcement of mobilization.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Map of Russian soldier casualties by area of origin. Basically, only the poor or non-Russian racial groups are being sent to fight
🇺🇦 The reason Russia has not yet gone with a full mobilization is that Putin does not want to upset the wealthy/connected class (see picture)
🚨A key finding from the Institute for the Study of War is that Putin no longer has complete support from Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
🚨… “Putin’s souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin’s increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units.”
🚨Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.
ℹ️ Referedum subplot
🇺🇦 The big news on Sept 20 is Russia is planning emergency referendums in order to declare occupied territories part of Russia. This will give Putin the ability to say Ukraine/NATO is attacking Russian soil.
🇺🇦 Moscow’s proxies in 4 regions announce dates for ‘referendums’ to join Russia, Ukraine. This will tentatively occur Sept. 23-27.
🇺🇦 The entire West has denounced this plan. Duh. That was a throwaway bullet point.
🇺🇦 …This seems like a losing proposition because Putin has no ability to enforce these demands, and it would be an embarrassment to Putin when the world to just ignore it. The Institute for the Study of War suggests that because of this, Putin is less likely to actually go through with it.
🇺🇦 US states it will never recognized annexed parts of Ukraine as Russian territory.
🇺🇦 Russia is transferring paratroopers from Syria to Ukraine to serve on the front line.
ℹ️ Nuclear subplot
🇺🇦 In a rare address to the nation, Putin made clear that he plans to annex large swathes of Ukraine in the coming week and is prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend his gains. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff,” he warned.
🇺🇦 Biden threatened consequential retaliation if RU used nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 …in fact, most NATO countries are threatening consequences.
🇺🇦 Opinion: I seriously double Russia will use nuclear weapons.
ℹ️ Additional pre-mobilization news:
🇺🇦 2,000 Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia. Goddammnit.
🇺🇦 I see story after story about torture chambers and mass graves being found as Russia leaves occupied areas
🇺🇦 14,532 civilian casualties in Ukraine due to Russia’s war. (UN source)
Russia is transferring conscripts from Leningrad Oblast to Ukrainian border, at Belgorod.
🇺🇦 The formation of irregular, hastily-trained units adds little effective combat power to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Remember, the Russian army that is fighting now is a completely different army than the one that invaded. I don’t have exact numbers, but nearly ever
🇺🇦 Russia spent all summer building the the 3rd Army Corps, with 10,000 people and hundreds of vehicles. This force rushed into Kharkiv to block the Ukrainian counter offensive, and then it just melted away
🇺🇦 Russia is anticipating mass retreated and desertions from Kherson and are taking measures to order troops to stay where they are.
🇺🇦 A new Russian decree states that from September 19th, citizens of Crimea who are eligible for enlistment are forbidden from leaving the peninsula without formal permission from regional authorities. There is no detail on who is eligible for enlistment.
🇺🇦 Pro-Kremlin telegraph channels are now blasting RU military leadership, and Putin personally, for the failure of his ‘Special Military Operation’. Having fired 6 commanding generals, Putin is now running out of people to blame.
🇺🇦 Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands stopped issuing tourist visas to Russians
🇺🇦 Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families. An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.
🇺🇦 Various reports pointing to the notion that the Russian political system is in “shock” following the rapid retreat.
🇺🇦 Russian society was having a hard enough time grappling with the fact that Ukraine could defend themselves, and it was unfathomable that Russian forces would ever retreat
🇺🇦 Russian officials are spreading fake information that Ukrainian arms dealers are selling western weapons on the black market.
🇺🇦 Ukraine destroyed resupply lines into Kherson, so Russian forces tried sinking cars in Dnipro to create a retreat crossing
🇺🇦 Ukraine destroyed a military transport trying to ferry troops and equipment across the Dnipro
🇺🇦 Russia struck itself with one of its hypersonic weapons. The missile landed on Stavropol. Multiple main stream news outlets reporting
🇺🇦 There are unverified reports that Putin survived an assassination attempt. In this report, on Wednesday Sept 14, an ambulance stopped infant of the motorcade and blocked the leading vehicle. The front wheel of Putin’s car was “hit by a loud bang” follow by smoke. The car was then driven to safety. In this account, three members of Putin’s security detail have been arrested.
🇺🇦 The left bank (eastern part) of Kupyansk has been liberated. This means the Ukrainians have a bridgehead over the Oskil river.
🇺🇦 Putin met with Indian PM Modi. Modi gave his opinion that ‘today is not the era of war.’ Putin responded by saying he wants to end this, but Ukraine insists on ending it on the battle field. The actual quote: "We will do everything to end it as soon as possible. Unfortunately, the opposite side, the leadership of Ukraine, has said it refuses to participate in the negotiation process. It declared that it wanted to achieve its goal by military means, as they say, on the battlefield."
🇺🇦 Russia's surplus vanishes . For months, Russia ran a huge budget surplus in the face of skyrocketing commodity prices. But those days are apparently over. In August, there was a deficit in the billions.
🇺🇦 The flag of Ukraine was raised in Yarova in Donetsk region
ℹ️ Wagner subplot:
🇺🇦 Wagner is going to prisons to recruit. “Full pardons if you survive 6 months, but if you desert, we’ll execute you”
🇺🇦 Wagner is recruiting prisoners ages 22 to 50.
🇺🇦 “Wagner itself suffers about 50% combat casualties, including their highly-trained and well-equipped elite units. A criminal in a Wagner penal unit will have less than 1 in 10 chance of surviving 6 months. They're pretty much offering a "commutation" of a prison term to that of a death sentence.”
🇺🇦 Wagner appears to be trying to recruit Europeans to fight NATO using partisan methods
ℹ️ Azov subplot.
🇺🇦 215 prisoners were released from Russian captivity in a massive prisoner exchange on Sept 21. Azov commanders were among the POWs returned from Russian captivity. This includes Denys Prokopenko, the head of the Azov regiment at then besieged Azovstal steel plant, deputy commander Svyatoslav Palamar and marine commander Serhiy Volynsky. They were delivered to Turkey and spoke via teleconference with Zelensky.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!